The third Q2 GDP estimate came in the same as last time: -0.6%. Q1 GDP was unchanged at -1.6%. In other words, 2 quarters of negative GDP – a recession in most folks’ minds. The deflator ticked higher to 9.0%, making a pretty good case for stagflation. The only missing ingredient is worsening employment numbers…

Futures were already off, but this didn’t help.

Our equity outlook remains unchanged.

continued for members…

Yesterday’s drop in VIX was massive, but it’s back to testing the red TL connecting previous tops. Currencies are on the sidelines at the moment – normal for quarter-end. Note that GC and SI both merely backtested overhead resistance yesterday. Ditto for CL and RB, which should continue lower next week into the OPEC+ meeting.