BoE – The First to Blink

That didn’t take long. After watching the pound drop below its 1985 all-time lows, the Bank of England decided 10.1% inflation isn’t that big a deal after all. This is disastrous policy piled on top of disastrous policy. But, it was enough for the pound to recover – at least for now.And, because if one central bank can blink they all might, it was enough to jolt futures back to green after they sank below their June lows.

continued for membersIt was even enough to halt DXY’s ascent – at least for now – though EURUSD is still in real trouble. Naturally, USDJPY is still near its highs.I don’t believe this fundamentally changes anything in the outlook for stocks. Perhaps if the ECB joined in, this relief rally could turn into something lasting.

Although the June lows are safe for at least a few minutes, the VIX is still under pressure. Unless it drops back below 32.50ish, the path for stocks is still lower.

The SPY chart is much easier to read – still pointing to a test of the Feb 2020 highs sometime around Oct 4. Gold, silver and BTC all got a bounce off the BoE news, but the path still appears lower. Likewise for CL and RB… …and bonds rallied slightly.

Bottom line, I think this is much ado about nothing – the quarter-end bounce we would normally get, but courtesy of the BoE.

Stay tuned…