Q2 GDP: Jul 27, 2018

Q2 GDP came in slightly below consensus at 4.1%.  The good news is that it’s a healthy number, certain to earn its way into headlines (and presidential tweets) from now until at least Nov 6.

The bad news is that, thanks to the “good” and “easy to win” trade wars, at least 1% of the print was attributable to accelerated exports – primarily soybeans.  In other words, it was borrowed from future quarters.  It’s safe to say a good chunk was also attributable to much higher oil and gas prices.

Futures are flat – still loitering (3rd day) within a few points of the Fib .886 retracement.With oil’s rising wedge looking ready to pop and the dollar still under pressure, can stocks still break out?

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