pebblewriter

Posts

  • Helter Skelter

    This week has been one for the record books, with major market stalwarts plunging one day… …and soaring the next.S&P futures have ranged nearly 90 points already, and the market hasn’t even opened yet.continued for members… (more…)

  • Facebook Flops

    Futures are off sharply overnight on Facebook’s sensational plunge.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • COMP’s Moment of Truth

    COMP’s breakdown caught a lot of people by surprise (though thankfully, not everybody.) Likewise, its bounce has turned more than a few heads.  As it approaches a backtest of its channel line and SMA200, what can we expect? And what does it mean for the broader market?

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Bears Punt

    Yesterday, we stated it was time for the bears to put up or shut up. They punted. Thanks to VIX breaking down, SPX and ES are back above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since Jan 20, a move that clearly takes some pressure off.It doesn’t necessarily mean, however, that the the correction is over.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Put Up or Shut Up

    SPX has been threatening to break back above its 200-day moving average ever since Jan 23. Despite numerous vigorous attempts, it remains below it, signalling more downside ahead.

    It’s time for the bears to put up or shut up.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Jan 28, 2022

    Futures have been all over the map, but ES’ flag pattern is still intact.  All of our targets remain unchanged. Look out below.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Update on Currencies: Jan 27, 2022

    EURUSD finally broke down, meaning DXY finally broke out.  We set the 1.0999 target over two months ago, reasoning that a breakdown in equities would send the dollar higher and the EURUSD lower. The DXY broke out two days later – even though the equity correction was delayed by year-end equity-propping silliness that saw DXY stuck in a holding pattern for over two months.

    Since the US is a net importer, the value of the USD is an important tool in the Fed’s inflation fighting toolkit.  All evidence to the contrary, the Fed insists they actually care about inflation.  We’ll take a fresh look at the currencies this morning to see what they suggest about inflation and the overall markets.

    continued for members… (more…)

  • The Fed’s Gut Check

    After Monday’s tumble, will Powell have the guts to stick to his inflation-fighting guns?  Futures are up about 1.5%, but are still just shy of the 200-day moving average.

    continued for members…

    (more…)

  • Update on COMP: Jan 25, 2022

    Less than a week ago, we penned an update on COMP that was aptly entitled COMP Signals More Pain Ahead accompanied by the following chart.

    COMP complied yesterday, racing past our initial downside target to tag the next one at 13,213.50 before a massive bounce back to the .618 Fib.

    Is it safe to wade back in?

    continued for members… (more…)

  • Whew!

    Yesterday was one of the wildest rides we’ve seen in quite some time. It won’t be the last.

    ES nailed our next downside target, then did a swan dive through the bottom of the channel from 3 weeks ago, nearly tagging our 4153 target in the process before closing in the black.

    With the futures off 1.5% this morning, the bumpy ride is far from over.

    continued for members… (more…)