UPDATE: 3:30 PM Consumer credit for December and Q4 was just released. First, the manipulated adjusted numbers, the ones most financial journalists, the WSJ and CNBC will report: Looks great, right? Who wouldn’t get excited about a 9.3% increase in credit demand? Think of all the iPad’s that’ll buy. Here are the real numbers: … continue reading →
I recently finished The Great Depression, A Diary, by Benjamin Roth — an Ohio lawyer who chronicled his daily observations of the economy and politics from 1931 – 1941. It’s riveting reading, as the events Roth describes are eerily similar to those of today — a real estate bubble and crash complete with banksters (amongst … continue reading →
UPDATE: 12:30 PM Okay, lots going on. This will be a long post, but I’ll save as I go. First, I immediately looked at the DX after the employment figures came out. The dollar quickly dropped to an important fan line at 78.815, then reacted very strongly, shooting up to 79.485 before settling back down … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:00 PM Unless/until 1333 is taken out, we’re calling that the Wave 2 top. The wave action since then has been garbled, meaning it could be interpreted in a number of ways. We’ll know soon enough, though, whether the 88.6% retracement of 1333 – 1300 was a corrective wave (if 1333 was the top) … continue reading →
Fan lines often signal important turning points, and are thus an important aspect of technical analysis.
UPDATE: 12:30PM We’ve popped up above the 1326.41 Gartley target, only to stop right at the 1.272 target (1329.11) of the much larger Butterfly. It’s also a stone’s throw from the .886 (1329.71) of what I presumed was a Gartley pattern. Remember, Gartley’s Point B is at the .618 Fib level — which was 1320.87. … continue reading →
UPDATE: 7:50 PMCharles Hugh Smith’s Of Two Minds blog is a delight. Recently, I linked to his brilliant Dear USA: Your Account is Overdrawn. Today, he tops himself by providing a sound argument for the incarceration of the most prolific counterfeiter in the world: the Federal Reserve. Read more at: Counterfeit Money, Counterfeit Policy. UPDATE: … continue reading →
UPDATE: 1:55 PM We just hit 1311.71 on what looks like an A-B-C corrective wave, very close to the 1312 back test target discussed at 9:40 below (which, upon closer inspection, should top out around 1313.8) We’ve also tagged the 15-min RSI TL, meaning we should turn back soon if this bounce is going … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:10 PM SPX has completed most of a head & shoulder pattern that points to 1288ish. The idealized right shoulder comes in around 1322, although it’s high enough to count as it is. ORIGINAL POST: Another quiet day price-wise, even though there’s been plenty of negative news. Clearly, the bulls aren’t going to give … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:00 PM The H&S; pattern we discussed this morning is “growing” as the decline continues. The new nominal target is 1306, at which point we have more opportunities for it to expand further. If this one plays out and if the next one does set up, it could target somewhere around 1280 – 1288. … continue reading →