Futures are up sharply on Bessent’s comments on Sunday that a trade deal with China was imminent. We have no details on the deal – e.g. whether or not it would benefit the US if it is actually happening. All we know if that it’s happening right before a very important FOMC meeting, perhaps to tamp down FOMC fears about more tariff-driven increases in inflation.

Of course, it might not matter if AI superintelligence kills us all off anyway.

continued for members…

If it sticks, this would represent a breakout above the channel top for ES. Pretty annoying that TPTB couldn’t live with the 16.4% gain that SPX is tracking toward.

Of course, VIX gapped down below its SMA50 and the SMA10 is only a day away from a bullish SMA20 cross.I’m keeping an eye on USDJPY. If it breaks out, equities will benefit.  Trump is meeting with the new PM Takaichi this week, so don’t be surprised if yen debasement (the yen carry  trade) revs up again. Of course, this means a stronger USD, which has generally been detrimental to equities. The solution is for it to weaken against the euro, meaning we would finally get to 1.2028 on EURUSD.

continuing…