Futures are up moderately as we shuffle toward the end of the year ramp.

The negative divergence continues, outpaced only by the concentration into AI and associated tech, much of which has questionable profitability.

continued for members…

ES remains broken out above the channel midline, meaning the 1.618 target is still alive.

The divergence is quite apparent in SPX, which has also almost reached its 1.618.

VIX and VX are still split on the prospect for new highs. VX remains broken out of the falling purple channel and above its SMA50.

While VIX remains stubbornly within the falling purple channel (though also above its SMA50.)Currencies are still muted, with SMA200s gaining/losing enough ground to suggest the DXY won’t break out. This would be beneficial to stocks, but would probably last only through the EOY in order to try to keep the rally alive into YE.

CL and RB are split following OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes that were due to take place in Q1 2026. There is also growing awareness that the government shutdown will impact demand for fuel.

I want to highlight the recent 10Y breakout above the purple TL. It’s a fairly small breakout, but it has potential upside to the yellow TL at 4.30.

November isn’t typically a big upside month – about 1% historically. It’s easy to imagine the market just bumping along at current levels. As long as the channel breakout continues, the market is safe. But, SPX is just barely above the channel line, and there are a lot of gaps to fill at lower levels.

The Supreme Court will start hearing oral arguments on Trump’s tariffs on Wednesday. And, we’ll get some important non-governmental economic data this week as well. So, data which isn’t normally that consequential will take on additional import.

Stay tuned…