Headline CPI fell 0.8% MoM – the biggest drop since 2008… …thanks primarily to plunging energy prices. Core CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the biggest drop since it began being tracked in 1961. The details show strong upticks in food and medical care but weakness almost everywhere else.Like almost all economic data lately, the algos have … continue reading →
Futures are off sharply, eyeing a bevy of gaps and Fib levels left in the wake of last week’s nonsensical algo-driven ramp. Our yield curve models swung bearish last week, as did a number of other sentiment-based indicators. Perhaps the most compelling is the 2Y, which plunged below critical support at 17 bps, testing 10 … continue reading →
Unemployment reaches 14.7%. It’s a sobering headline, but it could be worse. As the BLS explains… Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship between the two was no longer stable in April. Therefore, the establishment survey made modifications to the birth-death model. If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent … continue reading →
Yes, we’re getting yet another ramp job in front of the latest dismal economic news. Like all the others, this one was driven by another sharp drop in VIX, which finally managed to tag our 100-DMA target (but, only because the 100-DMA has been steadily rising.)It was also driven by a pop in oil prices, … continue reading →
In a bit of a delayed reaction to Treasury’s announcement of its $3 trillion borrowing needs in Q2, the 2s10s has pushed above the white TL connecting all-time lows – a clear warning, should it last, for equities. Meanwhile, CL backtested its Feb 2016 lows and USDJPY broke down at about the same time that … continue reading →
SPX and ES tagged our downside targets yesterday and proceeded to close at overhead resistance. Of course, that was before the overnight ramp got started. Now, with oil and gas breaking out in response to much of the country re-opening and VIX taking a larger than usual pre-market dive……ES is up 37 points and seemingly … continue reading →
When Warren Buffett – normally one of the market’s biggest cheerleaders – says he can’t find any compelling buys, traders take notice. “We have not done anything because we don’t see anything that attractive to do, They might also be wondering just how ugly March Durable Goods (due at 10AM) will be and what to … continue reading →
Futures were off sharply overnight, tagging our SMA10 target, and even a little more as the moving average actually dropped a little (a rarity lately.) As is so common these days, the rest of the backtest came after the close and before the cash market opened this morning – the better to keep the bigger … continue reading →
Powell’s press conference was everything a bull could want: unlimited support for an unlimited time, propping up everything the law might allow – and maybe more. But, we already knew that. As I asked yesterday morning, how do you improve upon “whatever it takes?” The market rallied anyway, spiking past an important Fib level on … continue reading →
It was perhaps inevitable that the latest Remdesivir puff piece would hit mere seconds before the (not coincidentally) delayed and (even more) disastrous -4.8% GDP (vs -3.5% expectations) print. At -7.8%, personal consumption dropped more than it has in 40 years.But, pay no attention to the crumbling economy. Remdesivir! (which killjoy Scott Gottlieb reminds us … continue reading →