DXY continues tumbling toward our downside target [see: Capitulation, Aug 21] taking USDJPY with it. Although VIX is still in the basement, CL hasn’t broken out. So, stocks don’t have much upside impetus. continued for members… … continue reading →
I started writing this post two weeks ago, after oil nailed our latest downside target (from Jul 31: 46.46) and was rallying nicely. Of course, a lot has happened since then. I had been taken aback by the news that Andy Hall, such a prolific oil trader that he earned the moniker “God,” was shuttering … continue reading →
I’m focusing on oil this morning, so the regular array of charts will be somewhat delayed. Not to worry, as our targets remain unchanged from yesterday. The only updates relate to the EURUSD, which found no reason to reverse following Draghi’s comments. The USD continues to drop toward our downside target. continued for members…
Aside from the troubling headlines, yesterday’s price action was driven by continuing weakness in the USD (especially USDJPY) and oil’s inability to push through important overhead resistance. This morning, oil is pushing above that resistance. We won’t see EIA inventory data until tomorrow, due to the holiday. So, it remains to be seen whether traders … continue reading →
As the great philosopher would say, that escalated quickly. Yesterday, gold reached our purple target detailed in our last update [see: Gold, Ready to Shine?] As we pointed out in June, 1348.60 is a key price level, as it represents 2 channel lines and the .886 retracement of the plunge from 1377 in July 2016…If … continue reading →
Stocks were well on their way to a breakout over the holiday weekend, a common enough occurrence — when reality demanded a pit stop (hydrogen bombs and impending ICBM launches can have that effect.) S&P futures dropped 20 points from Friday’s highs by the time they reopened Sunday. Even after a concerted ramp job, things … continue reading →
VIX completed the first breakdown we discussed yesterday, but stopped short of dropping through the white channel midline. Thus, although the implications are bullish, equities have yet to actually break out.continued for members… … continue reading →
In considering central bankers’ “assistance” to markets, I’m reminded of the old fable about the scorpion and the turtle: A turtle was happily swimming along a river when a scorpion hailed it from the shore. The scorpion, being a very poor swimmer, asked the turtle to carry him on his back across a river. “Are … continue reading →
It’s happening again. The notes from gold bugs are starting to flood in, wondering whether this time is different, whether the breakout is real. Recall that our last update [June 7 Update on Gold] came tantalizingly close to a bullish call. If DXY falls through the midline of the purple channel (96.10) then, sure, GC … continue reading →
Another day, another V-shaped recovery. This one overshot our next downside target by 3 points, reversing at a nonsensical Fib level. The talking heads would have us believe that traders suddenly stopped caring about nuclear war and floods of biblical proportions. But, it was just another sudden collapse in VIX leading algos down the path … continue reading →