It’s getting pretty tough for the few remaining live investors to believe the Fed’s rhetoric about the need for another rate hike — let alone the wisdom of the latest one. Yesterday’s minutes did nothing to change that. After a nice bounce (where it needed to bounce) the DXY is sliding back into negative territory … continue reading →
With FOMC minutes due to be released this afternoon, the dollar should continue to dominate the markets. USDJPY’s recent breakout is looking more and more like the real thing. continued for members… … continue reading →
The Trump Rally never made sense to me [see: Why the “Trump Rally” is a Fraud.] Yet, breakouts are breakouts, even if they’re driven by algo trickery and trend followers. SPX’s breakout in November was driven by exuberant spikes in USDJPY, DX and WTI and a historic suppression in VIX, which is at a crossroads. … continue reading →
Today, it’s all about the USD. EURUSD continues toward our upside target, while USDJPY is pedaling as fast as it can to compensate. As we’ve discussed all week, this leaves DXY at long-term critical support.Thanks to VIX and USDJPY, equities were able to put on quite a show yesterday, rallying back above support as expected. … continue reading →
Two weeks ago I floated the idea that the USD, which had broken down below a long-term trend line and bounced, wasn’t done [see: The Rally That VIX Built.] While the effects on equities would likely be muted by drops in VIX and a rise in oil prices, currencies were in for some significant moves. … continue reading →
Our short USD position is paying off in spades this morning, as EURUSD has broken out……and, DXY is plunging. This should complete the move we forecast two weeks ago [see: The Rally That VIX Built.] continued for members… … continue reading →
SPX was locked in a nice, neat falling channel last week until Friday morning when, after backtesting the top of our yellow channel for the eleventy billionth time, two fairly common things happened: a rising channel for VIX suddenly broke down… …and, USDJPY “broke out” of the falling channel it’s been in since Dec 8. … continue reading →
After a drop to our downside target Wednesday, we were rewarded with a rise to our bounce target on Thursday. It was an ugly close, but one which left SPX right at tentative support. It’s a good thing we have VIX to tell us whether or not stocks will be actively supported, today. Is the … continue reading →
After EIA’s modestly bullish inventory report came out, yesterday, WTI dithered for a moment before heading higher. I was prepared to throw in the towel on our 42.11 downside target when its rally reversed at the exact price it needed to in order for me to quickly regain my confidence. The yellow arrow marks the … continue reading →
All eyes remain on oil, this morning. With the EIA inventory report coming out, we shouldn’t have to wait long for the final capitulation. Futures are getting a jump start, as ES has rallied 10 points — back to even – on a sudden spike in USDJPY back to channel resistance.SPX got within 2 points … continue reading →