Known Unknowns Strike Again

I’ve glanced wistfully over the years at announcements of runs I’ve enjoyed in the past: countless 5Ks, 10Ks and a handful of marathons. Together with high school football, college rugby and too many pickup basketball games to count, they had bestowed me with the knees of a senior citizen well before any gray hair clocked … continue reading →

Algos to Stocks: “We Got This”

It’s a light volume day leading up to a holiday weekend – the market’s favorite time to take a shot at important resistance. Though SPX tagged its 3.618 Fibonacci extension several weeks ago, ES has fallen short time after time. The disappointing employment data due out at 8:30 wasn’t going to help, so VIX jumped … continue reading →

Stocks to Algos: “Don’t Let Me Down”

On top of the world, with an adoring crowd gathered below and indifferent law enforcement milling about…there is a bit of a parallel between a famous rooftop concert and the current market. As stocks slink into the end of Q1 amidst a bevy of perils, there’s a sense of calm before the storm. Then again, … continue reading →

USDJPY’s Turn

Members will recall that one critical component of our oil/gas decline scenario is USDJPY’s breakout from the falling channel from 2017 shown below.  Guess what? The yen carry trade is a tried and true method of goading the algos into buying equities – even overpriced ones. It works especially well as a counterweight to falling … continue reading →

The Usual Suspects

There’s a well-known scene at the end of the classic film Casablanca where Captain Renault (Claude Reins), having seen Rick (Humphrey Bogart) shoot a Nazi in order to enable Ilsa and Lazlo to escape, tells his men to “round up the usual suspects.” It saves Rick, Ilsa and Lazlo’s collective bacon (though I suspect it … continue reading →

Update on Gold and Silver: Mar 25, 2021

We have multiple targets being reached this morning, and several more in the works. We’ll start with ES, which just tagged our SMA50 target in a backtest of the falling white channel from which it broke out two weeks ago. The one we’ve been waiting on for what feels like forever, though, is silver. SI … continue reading →

Don’t Fight the BoJ

I know what you’re thinking: it’s “don’t fight the Fed.” While that’s generally true, too, the Bank of Japan is the central bank which most conspicuously wears its balance sheet on its sleeve. When my charts are a farrago of bearish indicators, but the Nikkei pushes up through resistance? I’ve learned to ignore the indicators … continue reading →