The ES trend line we were expecting to break down yesterday did, in fact, break down. But, it has been a very meek, carefully controlled breakdown so far. Most factors are still bearishly aligned except for DXY, which has broken out of a little falling channel on continued weakness in the euro. As for the … continue reading →
Thanks to the many well-wishers for your messages of support over the past few days. My knee surgery went very well Tuesday and I’ve already graduated from the walker to crutches and am determined to replace them with a cane by the end of the day. I’ll probably skip the Boston Marathon this year, but … continue reading →
Not the website…but your humble editor-in-chief. Hope to be up and around by Thursday Feb 6. … continue reading →
ES precisely tagged its SMA50 at 3212.75 on Friday. Recall that the SMA50 has been our preferred downside target since ES tagged our preferred upside target on Jan 22 – representing the intersection of the rising white channel .236 line and the top of the rising purple channel it broke out of on Dec 12. … continue reading →
In a stunning demonstration of the extent to which algos control the market, ES soared 56.50 points after the World Health Organization declared the Wuhan coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern. While it’s true the press conference felt more like a China tourism promo, the declaration in no way reduced the risk the … continue reading →
The downside scenario triggered when S&P futures reached our upside target on Jan 22… $ES_F just reached our next upside target.https://t.co/zTy3q8WSBd pic.twitter.com/CoRSemmDOk — pebblewriter (@pebblewriter) January 22, 2020 …is playing out very nicely indeed. Credit VIX, which uncharacteristically didn’t collapse last night……and CL which, having come close to our 51.62 target on Sunday, is taking … continue reading →
Ignore the sales projections and the hype. Keep an eye on the channel top and 2.24 Fib extension at 653. If it reverses here, the nearest support is at the 10-day moving average at 550, with 521 being the nearest strong support. … continue reading →
Futures are higher this morning on what is expected to be a non-event FOMC announcement and press conference. I suspect attention will again return to currencies, as the US dollar’s surge over the past month, combined with the big drop we had anticipated in oil and gas, will serve to tamp down inflation fears. Of … continue reading →
You can fake a lot of things in the stock market. The bond market, not so much. Eventually, reality catches up with the narrative. If the two are as divergent as they’ve been over the past three months, the reconciliation can be ugly.The euphoric breakout we saw following the sharp reversal on Nov 1 was … continue reading →
We’ve been bearish on oil for quite a while, shorting it at 75.57 on October 3, 2018 after Jamal Khashoggi was dismembered and at each of the 3 subsequent peaks since then: just before the JCPOA breakup, the Abqaiq attack and the Aramco IPO — which should have been a peak, but resulted in a … continue reading →