ES sold through our next downside target in reaction to the new B.1.1.529 COVID-19 variant. A number of factors have also hit downside targets, making this plunge on a normally quiet day a selloff of interest. Our targets in equities, currencies and commodities remain unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures have spent the last two days testing the 20-DMA, buoyed by the USDJPY slowly creeping higher but under pressure from rising vol. The economic backdrop remains mixed, with GDP coming in at a very slight miss (2.1% vs 2.2% consensus) but durable goods orders missing badly (-0.5% vs 0.2 expected.) On a positive note, … continue reading →
World leaders announced the coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves today in an effort to force oil and gas prices lower amidst rapidly rising inflation. The US, India, China, Japan, Republic of Korea and the UK are among the countries participating. WTI’s initial reaction hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. Traders, who have seen these … continue reading →
Futures melted up overnight with boosts from VIX and USDJPY. continued for members… … continue reading →
With goldbugs calling for gold to double, we got bearish again when it reached our upside target at 1870.60 on November 10 [see: CPI: Out of Control.] Gold is getting a big boost from the inflation data, and has now reached the purple neckline at 1870.60. I would revert to short with tight stops right … continue reading →
CL and RB are both off about 12% since our Oct 25 short call. CL is coming up on the top of its rising white channel – a potential turning point. It’s probably close enough to be shorted here at 85.23. I’ve been skeptical of oil’s rally for quite some time, observing almost a year … continue reading →
BTC reached our next downside target, a 17.2% drop from our short call on Nov 8, reiterated on Nov 9 and 10. Last, BTC is getting a very nice bounce this morning, perhaps on the notion that Elon’s $20 billion in TSLA sales might land in crypto. In any case, this is a very important … continue reading →
Futures came within 5 points of our upside Fibonacci target before backing off last night. This satisfies our expectation that the last leg up in this phase of the rally would occur overnight due to the pattern discrepancies between SPX and ES. Today is OPEX. Close enough for the party to get started? continued for … continue reading →
Futures are up modestly as we approach OPEX, with yesterday’s drop recasting the rising wedge as a rising channel – a more apparently bullish pattern. Naturally, VIX has “broken down” all over again. And, naturally, the algos are listening… … continue reading →
EURUSD tagged our next downside target overnight: the .618 Fib at 1.1285. As we discussed in last month’s currency update [see: At The Brink] this breakdown below support has been instrumental in helping DXY achieve our long-expected breakout. continued for members… … continue reading →