Higher interest rates and inflation, but falling retail sales? Not a great combination for equities. In fact, it feeds right into our base case of stagflation.Not even the venerable VIX gimmick was able to paper over the implications.Back on May 3 [see: Decision Time] we identified the 15-16th as a potential new low. The next … continue reading →
Take a look at Tesla’s bonds, and you might wonder if the company is careening towards that Great Center Divider in the Sky. Yet, TSLA stock has held on to some important levels of technical support. Setting aside the considerable, robust debate and analysis, what do the charts say? I’m a big believer in logarithmic … continue reading →
There are very few charts which tell the story of this market as dramatically as does VIX’s. The most noticeable pattern is the falling purple channel which accurately signaled its highs and lows between Nov 2015 and Jan 2018. But, this falling channel conflicted with a much larger rising yellow channel. In the wake of … continue reading →
With the algos firmly back in control of stocks, it seemed like a good time to take a step back and look at the big picture. The Iran matter changes a few things — with potentially much bigger changes to come. We’ll start with VIX which, as expected, continues to get hammered — particularly when … continue reading →
Everyone who drives knows that gas prices increased more than 3% month-over-month – the official, seasonally adjusted numbers from the BLS in this morning’s CPI report. Data put together by non-governmental sources confirms it.But, folks like GasBuddy and AAA aren’t responsible for cost of living adjustments for millions of Americans. So, unlike the BLS, they … continue reading →
Another day, another ramp job. Yesterday’s oil and gas price recovery wasn’t enough to help stocks break out. But, VIX’s dip below horizontal support was more than up to the task.There’s just one problem – inflation. Ignore the seasonally-adjusted PPI poppycock and look beneath the hood. Petroleum products rose 21.7%. That was an understatement, but … continue reading →
Yesterday’s late-day reversal was a minor victory for the bears — even if it came on the heels of an algo-driven melt-up which still threatens a break out.How do we know when the algos have free rein? A quick glance at VIX offered one pretty nice clue. Every dip below horizontal support (the yellow line … continue reading →
Another V-shaped recovery on a Friday. Not very original, but it certainly staved off another ugly day for the bulls. The SMA200 remains stalwart support for all the broad indices except COMP — which is now 4.95% above its. VIX remains a primary factor in equities’ direction, constructing rallies overnight that place it in a … continue reading →
With futures off 12 points a little while ago……VIX suddenly plunged 33%, tagging our downside target for all of 3 seconds. Futures rallied 10 quick points, but then dumped even lower.Bottom line, the bears called BS on the whole exercise. While not completely out of the woods, they’re looking to have a pretty good day … continue reading →
Short and sweet this time… Previous bounces off the 10s2s yield curve lows haven’t turned out that well for equities. related posts: Oil & Gas, Inflation and Interest Rates: Delicate Balance or Goal Seeking? Update on Bonds: Apr 27, 2018 Does the Yield Curve Matter? A Closer Look … continue reading →