What’s Next?

The futures are lock limit down again this morning, with ETFs trading in the after-hours indicating losses on the (eventual) open of up to 10%. This is probably not what the Fed had in mind when they unleashed the massive, emergency rate cut and $700 billion in new QE an hour before the futures opened … continue reading →

COVID-19: What to Expect

This article was originally posted March 13 and will be updated on a regular basis.  Updates are in reverse order, meaning the latest update is just below. UPDATE:  April 3, 2020 Out of curiosity, I took a look at mortality rate trends in a few other countries. While some are clearly better than others, every … continue reading →

Just Two Charts

Two charts best define the day we had yesterday. First, VIX tagged our next highest target: the intersection of the .786 Fibonacci retracement and the trend line connecting two previous highs. The other one was the SPX arithmetic (as opposed to log) chart, which stopped on a dime at the channel bottom.The bleeding continued well … continue reading →

Update on VIX: Mar 10, 2020

It’s been a while since we took a big picture look at VIX. Since it reached levels not seen since the GFC yesterday, this seemed like as good a time as any. VIX is an interesting instrument. Once a reliable measure of volatility in the market, it was used by many to hedge risk.  As … continue reading →