August CPI came in slightly below expectations, with the monthly headline figure at 0.3% versus last month’s 0.5% and the annual figure at 5.3% versus July’s 5.4%. To be clear, these are still problematic numbers and remain completely out of sync with artificially low interest rates. Only two categories in Schedule A came in at … continue reading →
On March 18, 2020, VIX topped out at 85.47, the highest level since the GFC. It didn’t stay there long, as central bankers around the world swung into action to save their respective stock markets. But, its peak was to become the start of a well-defined falling channel (below in white) which has consistently marked … continue reading →
Watching the “market” melt up and bonds barely budge in the face of all-time highs in the monthly and annual PPI print… More grist for the Fed’s “transitory” inflation scenario. Inflation is no longer dominated solely by soaring oil/gas prices. In other words, not transitory.Will the party end? Not as long as the Fed can … continue reading →
The ECB will reduce its purchases of bonds under its $2 trillion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) enacted last year. There’s no word on exactly how much it will reduce its purchases, nor any word on whether the slowdown will continue past the initial stage. But, it was very entertaining listening to CNBC’s Steve Liesman trip … continue reading →
S&P 500 futures are soft this morning, flirting with their first drop through the 10-DMA in three weeks and breaking the dashed red trend line from Aug 16. continued for members… … continue reading →
BTC tumbled sharply earlier today, coming within 400 of the 42,500 target we discussed on Aug 25 [see More of the Same]: BTC reversed just short of its .618 Fib. Although the cloud remains bullish and it’s above all of its SMAs, it feels tenuous to me. I think we get a cloud backtest here, … continue reading →
Futures are flat going into this morning’s open – a marked departure from the usual holiday weekend ramp jobs we’ve seen over the years. Even so, the care with which the futures have been managed is just as laughable. We’ll pick up this morning where we left off Friday on the topic of how the … continue reading →
Stocks are off slightly on the huge jobs miss (+235K versus +800K consensus, +1,053 prior), raising the question of whether even this much bad news can be good news for stocks.In this “heads bulls win, tails bears lose” market, the Fed remains the ultimate arbiter of market direction – based not only on the massive … continue reading →
Another overnight meltup into the open after a minor breakdown…with new highs only a tiny VIX decline away. continued for members… … continue reading →
OPEC+ is expected to increase production by another 400,000 bpd in today’s meeting, another dagger in the heart of the stubborn oil/gas rally. Of course, at this juncture, CL can backtest its SMA200 without even making a lower low. So, perhaps a pullback will finally be allowed. Given how important rising oil/gas prices have been … continue reading →