A Failure to Capitulate

Futures have given up all their Tesla gains and are pointing to a slightly lower open for the S&P this morning.Apparently, a threatened breakdown in VIX just isn’t as effective as it used to be. What we have here is a failure to capitulate (apologies to Cool Hand Luke for the cheap rip-off of a … continue reading →

Currencies: A Turning Point

Lots going on this morning, with currencies joining VIX in leading the equity circus. EURUSD smashed its March highs and is closing in on one of two levels of overhead resistance as DXY tests an important channel bottom. The next moves for each will have important implications for the economy and for algo-driven equities. ES … continue reading →

Shades of 2015

SPX reached our Fibonacci .886 retracement target yesterday. It’s a level I never imagined seeing after stocks reached important support back on March 23. But, then, I never imagined $5 trillion in liquidity  – equal to the nation’s Q2 economic output according to the Atlanta Fed – being pumped into the economy in the second … continue reading →

What’s Going On?

Despite approaching OPEX, it’s getting harder and harder for stocks to find a reason to rally. So, last night, they didn’t. On the other hand, a 20-point drop isn’t enough for bears get excited about, let alone pile onto…at least yet. With so many algo inputs suggesting we’re at or near a turning point, what’s … continue reading →

Frontrunning the Fed

Ultra low interest rates don’t do much for traditional banking earnings, but they’re pretty fantastic for highly leveraged banks such as Goldman that are only too happy to front run the tsunami of Fed liquidity injections. Between GS and more positive vaccine news (Moderna) the futures have pushed to higher highs, settling the question as … continue reading →