In our last major update on the EURUSD [see: Nov 25 Update] I attempted to tie together currencies, oil and equities in one nice, neat package. My basic premise from that post: DX would top at our 102.098 target despite an imminent rate hike USDJPY would rally strongly into year end, despite the fact that … continue reading →
As expected, futures just joined SPX in making new all-time highs. All it took was sneaking CL above its SMA200 and repeatedly hammering VIX below its SMA10. Child’s play for central planners.But, in guarding against any declines, ever, they have run into some issues that might limit the techniques’ effectiveness going forward. We’ll take a … continue reading →
Last week’s declining CPI should have sounded alarm bells for investors betting on the reflation trade and higher interest rates. However, it marked a buy signal for oil. Given that oil prices are a primary driver of equity prices, and given that the current YoY picture indicates even lower inflation going forward, it’s time for … continue reading →
As expected, the whole rate hike argument collapsed this morning. CPI, Core CPI and retail sales all missed. The Fed will continue talking up the dollar, of course. But, it isn’t looking good. The US dollar is, predictably, tumbling — taking USDJPY along with it.After nailing our downside target yesterday and rebounding nearly all the … continue reading →
See if you can spot the period during which the cash market was open in the USDJPY and WTI charts below. This one’s almost not fair, as VIX’s “breakdowns” have been as regular as clockwork.Now see if you can spot why the ramps happened when they did, and why our next downside target at 2383 … continue reading →
While most pundits seem to be blaming Trump’s suspicious firing of FBI Director Comey for yesterday’s market slippage, the more important factor was USDJPY’s reversal late in the session. It was USDJPY’s breakout that, along with VIX’s continued hammering, encouraged the latest all-time highs. So, the fact that it ran out of steam at an … continue reading →
We got new all-time highs as expected, yesterday. Never mind that it took a breakout in USDJPY, a breakdown in VIX and a sharp rebound in WTI. There’s even a clever bit of Fed positioning in the works for good measure. continued for members… … continue reading →
Still traveling today, but should be back in the office tomorrow morning. The big news over the weekend, of course, is Macron’s victory in the French election. While the EU might not be saved, at least its demise has been postponed a bit. Here are the charts I’d keep an eye on today. continued for … continue reading →
I’m on the road today, but wanted to post a few quick charts. The biggest development last night was oil, which continued falling after breaking through the support we discussed several days ago. continued for members… … continue reading →
The BoJ, which has been the most egregious manipulator of markets for years now, has a problem. All it would take to solve it is about 60 points on the NKD. This is a very screwed up chart, in so many ways — not the least of which is that it has no basis in … continue reading →