Will the Fed be able to stick to their “inflation is transitory” shtick this morning? If the financial media is any guide, there are plenty of adherents among money managers. And, why not? After all, there isn’t exactly a clear definition of what transitory inflation means. Is it elevated for 3 months? Six? A year? … continue reading →
You know when the market is in a holding pattern by how VIX behaves. For the most of the past three weeks, we’ve seen sudden collapses in VIX just ahead of the cash open. It doesn’t always last, but it’s very effective in reminding algos to smack the snooze button, “fixing” any overnight declines and … continue reading →
VIX’s collapse continues, putting ES within a few points of its all-time highs. At 15.15, VIX has given up nearly 50% since its May 13 highs and has reached the lowest level since Feb 20, 2020 – just before its ascent to 85.47 less than a month later. continued for members… … continue reading →
Does Janet Yellen really believe higher interest rates would be beneficial? “If we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus for society’s point of view and the Fed’s point of view,” Yellen told Bloomberg News after returning from a G-7 meeting in Brussels. This might have been … continue reading →
If yesterday’s better than expected ADP jobs data was bad news, then it stands to reason that today’s worse than expected DOL NFP print would be good for the market. Well, that, and the 13% pounding VIX has taken… As it was hammered back below its SMA10, ES was ramped up above its SMA10. Funny … continue reading →
We’ve heard the Fed’s pitches about inflation being transitory, the overriding need to keep stimulus flowing and interest rates at all-time lows, etc. But, as we witness the ongoing Gamestopification of the market, will investors be able to ignore next week’s evidence of persistent inflation that the Fed’s own actions has produced? I think they … continue reading →
Futures are slightly higher ahead of the open, propped up by the usual pre-opening VIX plunge and WTI ramp job. continued for members… … continue reading →
All ES needed was a 3-day weekend – and, another timely reversal in VIX, another timely breakout in USDJPY, and another threatened breakout by CL/RB – and here we are, 10 lousy points away from new all-time highs. continued for members… … continue reading →
You could argue that the annual PCE print of 3.6%, the hottest since 1992, is merely a function of the base effect – last year’s crash in inflation.But that argument falls flat when you consider that MoM Core PCE, which is completely unaffected by the base effect, soared by a record 0.7%. Naturally, both stocks … continue reading →
The Dow, the most easily and commonly manipulated index, has gone nowhere since failing to hold its 3.618 Fib extension at 34,430. It begs the question: what’s the holdup? Usually, when a closely followed index goes sideways for a while, it’s because an important moving average is moving into position for a backtest. But, is … continue reading →