Inflation Craters

Headline CPI fell 0.8% MoM – the biggest drop since 2008… …thanks primarily to plunging energy prices. Core CPI fell 0.4% MoM, the biggest drop since it began being tracked in 1961. The details show strong upticks in food and medical care but weakness almost everywhere else.Like almost all economic data lately, the algos have … continue reading →

Unemployment Highest Since Great Depression*

Unemployment reaches 14.7%.  It’s a sobering headline, but it could be worse.  As the BLS explains… Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship between the two was no longer stable in April. Therefore, the establishment survey made modifications to the birth-death model. If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent … continue reading →

Yield Curve Warning

In a bit of a delayed reaction to Treasury’s announcement of its $3 trillion borrowing needs in Q2, the 2s10s has pushed above the white TL connecting all-time lows – a clear warning, should it last, for equities. Meanwhile, CL backtested its Feb 2016 lows and USDJPY broke down at about the same time that … continue reading →

All Clear?

SPX and ES tagged our downside targets yesterday and proceeded to close at overhead resistance. Of course, that was before the overnight ramp got started. Now, with oil and gas breaking out in response to much of the country re-opening and VIX taking a larger than usual pre-market dive……ES is up 37 points and seemingly … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Apr 29, 2020

It was perhaps inevitable that the latest Remdesivir puff piece would hit mere seconds before the (not coincidentally) delayed and (even more) disastrous -4.8% GDP (vs -3.5% expectations) print. At -7.8%, personal consumption dropped more than it has in 40 years.But, pay no attention to the crumbling economy.  Remdesivir! (which killjoy Scott Gottlieb reminds us … continue reading →