I’ve seen it blamed on everything from a potential delay in the Brexit vote to Bullard’s resumed dovish tilt.  But, yesterday’s stick save was simply the result of our old friend — the USDJPY ramp.

After one of the most devastating dives yet (thank you, FOMC) the pair went on a non-stop melt up which, along with CL bouncing just below our 46.34 target, saw SPX/ES make one of its most vicious V-shaped recoveries this year.

ES has seen many like Wednesday’s — the steady drip, drip, drip of the algos working prices higher.  Yesterday’s 35-pt rebound was so steep as to be laughable.

continued for members…CL turned where expected.  Note that it’s at the top of the purple channel again — the one which might have guided it to this same spot had the algos not needed a break out to bust SPX’s latest H&S Pattern.

USDJPY is going sideways, giving no indication of its next direction.  It remains well below the channel bottom it just broke down from.SPX still owes us a tag on the white neckline and .786 Fib at 2046-2047, but since this is OPEX I’m not holding my breath.  It has technically broken out of the falling white channel, and they might want to prop it up at the SMA5 200 at 2072.27.I’d start short, but be prepared for a ramp job to kick in if anything starts to smell like a loss of upward momentum.

UPDATE:  9:32 AM

Just tagged the bottom of the rising red channel.  4 for 4?  I’d play a potential bounce here, as USDJPY and CL are still going sideways.  It would take a push below 2072.27 to convince me it’s going lower.  We should know any minute…UPDATE:  9:39 AM

SPX still dropping through the SMA5 200, and USDJPY and CL aren’t bouncing.  So, it appears they’ll support a larger drop.  Staying short.UPDATE:  10:12 AM

I thought SPX was waiting for the SMA5 10 to come along so it would have a catalyst to drive it lower.  It actually was waiting for it to come along so it could more easily climb on top.  CL just started pushing higher, the signal for a meltup.  I’d go to cash here, long if it can break above the falling white channel top (2075ish), back to short if it somehow manages to drop below the SMA5 200 now at 2073.14. UPDATE:  10:26 AM

Getting a little downside pressure again.  I’d short here with tight stops.UPDATE:  10:33 AM

Getting a little momentum going here.  Could see a bounce here at the SMA5 100.  But, if it drops through, not much support down below.  Note that yesterday’s target is no longer at the bottom of the falling white channel.  The .886 at 2036.70 is, though, right at the end of the day — which, on the chart, is also Monday morning.I see no catalyst to get it there today, but if we got any kind of sell-off, say 2047ish today, then a drop to 2036.70 Monday morning would be very doable.

I have to take a little break for 20-30 minutes.  I’d hang with the short position as long as it keeps going.  The SMA5 10 or 20 make good stop levels, though watch for head fakes as always.

UPDATE:  11:41 AM

So far, so good.  But, ES just reached the .618 of its rise from yesterday morning, so we’re going to get a bump here.  It should stop at the SMA5 100.  If not, then the SMA5 20 should offer resistance at around 2068. UPDATE:  12:07 PM

They’re trying to get ES back on top of its SMA5 10.  I’d cover the short on this little break out.  If it turns out to be a head fake, I’d go right back to short.  Depending on how far it goes, there might be another chance at the SMA5 200 backtest around 2072.20. UPDATE:  12:49

I really thought it would go up and tag the SMA5 200, but it sems to be breaking down here.  I’d go back to short on any drop through the SMA5 20 at 2067.50ish.Here’s the ES version:USDJPY and CL continue to amble along, not much inspiration either way except that CL is helping to prevent a sharp plunge. UPDATE:  1:15 PM

There’s a very good chance they’re going to pop back up and get the SMA5 200 or higher.  All, thanks to NKD.  Back to cash here unless CL breaks down right now. Thanks to Elsa for prompting me to take a peek at VIX.  While there’s a good shot at 24.61 in the next few days, a backtest of the SMA200 and channel midline at 18.24 could come first.  Even a dip to 17.33 would make sense — the SMA10 and closing the gap last week.On a positive note (for bears) a reversal up at the SMA5 200 would now constitute a backtest on the little white TL and the falling white channel.

UPDATE:  2:24 PM

ES is testing the top of the falling red channel and SMA5 100 as SPX is testing the top of the white channel and the SMA5 200.  We’d expect a reversal here, but now CL is threatening to break out.  For traders, this is probably a reasonable place to short for next week, though with the usual cautions regarding holding short overnight.  And, it’s entirely possible they’ll push it higher before the close.  VWAP for ES is at 2062.91 – right about here.