Oil and gas futures are higher as we await word on the deal being hammered out in Vienna.
The latest reports are that we’ll get a 1MM barrel per day increase. But, Iran is resisting any increase and is threatening to veto any deal that doesn’t include condemnation of the US’ withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
continued for members…
Around the horn…
More of the same from VIX and S&P futures…two falling wedges in a row, followed by a pretty well-constructed rising channel.
SPX is still in position to backtest the falling white channel and/or the 2.24. The SMA200 is the fallback position.
The Dow still looks ripe for a test of its SMA200.
On the currency front, the dollar is a little weaker, today…
…on euro strength…
…as well as yen strength.
RB’s and CL’s targets remain unchanged. RB has bounced overnight, but is running into the SMA10 and the SMA60 200 at 2.055ish. The downside could be anywhere from the SMA200 (currently at 1.8704) to the .618 at 1.889. If that doesn’t hold, the next real support is around 1.7961. If it pops above the SMA10, however, it’s safe to remain long.
Note that a tag of CL’s SMA200 at 60.80 would also represent a backtest of the broken purple channel top. In other words, it would permit a sizeable drop to strong support. But, first, CL would need to drop back below its SMA100.
UPDATE: 2:36 PM
The details of the deal are pretty much what everyone expected – a 1MM barrel per day increase — which almost erases the recent reduction.
CL and RB are rallying, presumably on relief that it wasn’t any more. But, it’s possible they’re just being pinned higher to get through the weekend.
CL’s breakout is more impressive, but it remains less appealing only because the impact on CPI isn’t as immediate — and, that’s what is needed at this point.
The dollar continues to slide…
…with USDJPY a factor.
Stocks are off their highs, but VIX has room to decline into the close — potentially for a typical Friday afternoon ramp job.
Trump has tweeted again re the need for lower oil and gas prices, and Congress is making more noise re the NOPEC legislation. Can TPTB force prices lower?

