It’s a rare Monday morning when a ramp doesn’t appear in time for the open. 
But, the hits keep coming: more trade problems, more political and economic problems in the euro zone, and the failure of the USDJPY to hold important support. And, the oil and gas decline might not even be over.
It’s a sloppy start to what could be a simple backtest of ES 2.24 at 2728.79, but could easily accelerate to test the SMA100 at 2704. SPX’s 2.24 at 2703.62 is a good 51 points below Friday’s ugly close.
continued for members…
VIX looks like it’ll finally break out. 
There are many upside targets, but the SMA100 at 17.39 and the red TL at 20 are logical destinations, with the red .886 at 24.03 still my favorite.
While either ES will almost certainly tag its 2.24, might SPX have another go at its?
The Dow is still fixated on its SMA200. 
CL made a nice break out of its falling channel — but, I question whether it’ll hold. 
It is very much out of sync with RB – our preferred trading vehicle at the moment.
RB kinda broke out…but not really. I still like 1.9647, and I still like the SMA200 at 1.8725-1.889. Keep an eye on the SMA10.
Here’s a revised falling white channel which takes the “breakouts” into account.
The dollar continues to look weak.
Much of it is driven by the USDJPY, which is testing a fan line but has much lower potential if 109.38 breaks – namely the purple .618 at 109.17 and the purple .886 at 108.42. 
If those break, there is plenty of dead air below.
And, though I can’t for the life of me see it making it that far that fast, EURUSD has held the rising white channel which leads to 1.2597.
Note that NKD is finally closing in on our SMA200 target – currently 22101. A proper backtest of the channel would be a little lower, say 21875. And, if the BoJ doesn’t jump in there, 20500 is in the picture. 
If TSHTF, remember what the ZN chart suggests…
TNX and CL have been joined at the hip – would be interesting to see them both tumble in the next few days.
UPDATE: 10:30 AM
ES has reached its 2.24… 
…with SPX still some ways away.
The Dow will continue to be important. If it dips below its SMA200, then SPX should get a crack at 2703.
I think we do go lower — if for no other reason than NKD’s SMA200 tag.
VIX – free at last.
BTW, have meetings this afternoon that will have me out of the office from about 1pm on. And, I’ll be out all tomorrow afternoon.
UPDATE: 12:12 PM
SPX just tagged its 2.24, while NKD reached its SMA200. 
We’ll know whether it will hold by whether RB and CL hold.
Even if SPX doesn’t hold, I would expect it to at least bounce here. As always, use stops. I’m taking off now, will try to check back in later.
Don’t forget about the power of the delay. COMP, which originally seemed to be headed for its SMA200 on April 4, appears to be aiming for a low in July.
GLTA.