The S&P500 soared 14.5% in the first half, easily beating the averages (since 1953) of 4.72%. Can the markets build on these gains, or are we due for some consolidation?

continued for members…

The past week has seen nothing but consolidation. While the highs haven’t been any higher, the lows haven’t been any lower.

For the first time in a while, the futures are flirting with a dip below the SMA10. Everything else is very much status quo…

…except oil and gas, which are slightly higher.

…which is helping to nudge the 10Y higher.This remains one of the biggest risks to the equity market. The other one that everyone will be pondering this week is the shifting sands in the political landscape.

Biden’s performance in the debate was abysmal, meaning that whatever scheme that might have safely preserved his tenure is now a total crapshoot at best.

This is not a political blog, and I try very hard not to take sides on these pages. But, my premise has been that TPTB would rather stay with Biden as he represents less risk to the status quo (whether you love or hate Trump, his tenure was unquestionably much more tumultuous.)

The fence straddlers who will decide this election would be rightly concerned about Biden’s mental acuity. If he remains the Democrat’s nominee, he will probably lose. I have expected for the last year that the Dems would replace him, but I never imagined it would be as the result of a meltdown such as we saw last week.

If they hope to hold the White House, Biden should withdraw immediately and name a new nominee who can allay the average voter’s fears.

Stay tuned…