Futures are off moderately ahead of Jay Powell’s comments at an ECB forum in Portugal.

continued for members…

ES might backtest the SMA20, depending on how the bond market reacts to employment data later this week.

Nothing very new happening in currencies, as EURUSD remains in its happy place and USDJPY continues its meltup. The 10Y popped yesterday, but is settling a little lower ahead of the open. There is a general feeling in the bond market that a Trump presidency would be inflationary. Note that it did not break out of the latest falling channel.

The trade picture is usually cited, but there is also the oil/gas picture which we have discussed often in these pages.  Note that CL and RB are testing some resistance this morning.

If they break out, it would certainly complicate the inflation picture.

Stay tuned…