Not Even Close

Even down over 50 points, the market hasn’t even come close to undoing the craziness of the past two sessions.

Consider that VIX is off over 10% from yesterday’s highs with ES down over 1%.continued for membersDespite the earnings disappointments and the influence that extremely strong jobs numbers should have on the Fed’s plans, the major indices are still very much broken out.

Though I’m toying with a new falling channel for SPX… …it’s hard to ignore the SPY breakout and cycle breakdown. My base case still calls for DJIA to backtest its SMA200 – about 4.5% below current levels.

Though VIX’s TL has held, it hasn’t been a very impressive bounce so far.  At least it’s an improvement over VIX’s 17% drop from Tuesday.USDJPY is still testing its SMA20 and channel top.

But, it’s just the BoJ trying to preserve NKD’s latest bounce above its SMA200.EURUSD has rolled over and is threatening a long overdue breakdown.

It’s given new life to DXY.GC and SI are finally breaking down.

Though CL and RB, which started to break down, have scurried back up to what is now a backtest of former support. Last, TNX’s bounce off its SMA200 continues and should gain new strength after the jobs data.

continuing…