Turns out the “Trump rally” wasn’t impervious to higher rates after all.  Our analog is on track, with further drops to come after a day or two of chop.  Our downside targets remain unchanged.

continued for members…

There are many important resistance support lines being tested today.  On the currency front, DX has reached the .618 of its drop from 121.29 to 71.05…

UPDATE:  2:04 PM

CL is getting a bounce here at the SMA5 200 and white channel top, so SPX might bounce, too.  Back to long – though it might be short-lived.

Note that ES, which had broken down through support, is popping back above it.  Also, note that ES’ SMA10 is about 20 points lower at 2237.15, which matches our 2243 target for SPX.

USDJPY is pulling the same stunt.

UPDATE:  2:22 PM

Okay so which is it?  VIX breaking down, or CL breaking down?  I believe CL, so I’d revert to short here.  However, since SPX is above the purple midline, there’s a good chance it’s a head fake.  All it would take is for them to spank VIX back below the sMA5 200 at 12.92.

UPDATE:  2:27 PM

VIX getting spanked, back to long.  I show VIX could easily drop as low as 12.56 and still remain in the rising white channel.  If SPX breaks 2265.25, it’s a breakout that could easily reach 2274.21.  The way this would typically work would be to nudge it up to 2264.78 — the SMA5 100 — around 3pm,, then smash it through resistance by crushing VIX or spiking CL.

Note that CL is holding at a backtest of the falling yellow channel.  It’ll probably be treated as support.

FWIW, RUT has broken out, but is bouncing from successively lower lows.

UPDATE:  3:29 PM

We’re not getting the rally that should have happened by now, if it’s going to.  I’d stay long for now, but would revert to short on any drop through the purple midline at 2261.

UPDATE:  3:53 PM

SPX is playing cat and mouse with a breakout.  If it breaks out, I’d short just before the close.  If it doesn’t, or if it breaks down below 2261, I’d short at 2261.  Either way, I’d want to be short overnight.  Given where the SMA5 200 is, there’s a decent chance we’ll get a pop up to backtest 2267.36 by the close.

 

.

.