If the SPX slide stops around here (ideally 1263), we would have a butterfly pattern (since the open, visible on the 5 minute) nestled inside another butterfly (also on 5 minute, since Friday’s low) nestled inside a crab (since 4/18 on the daily), nestled inside yet another crab (since 3/16 on daily.)  Think of them as four very bullish Russian nesting dolls, collectively indicating an upside of 1329 or better.

Incidentally, 1329 is the midline of our 2-std dev regression channel we’ve been in for the past 4 months.  If this is the top, we always retrace to the midline after the 2nd touch of the negative 2 std dev line one last time before the plunge.  http://pebblewriter.blogspot.c…

Not saying it has to happen… but VIX seems to be contained within the same channel it’s been in since April, and whatever the wave count, this isn’t feeling like a meltdown to me — just the rebound camp getting a little ahead of itself this morning.

Here are the patterns.  The butterfly patterns are nestled at the end of the CD leg in the lower right corner.

Two Crab Patterns

Two Butterfly Patterns


Matryoshkas — 5 Comments

  1. Thanks for all the time you put in this blog! I follow Daneric as well. I would assume once Congress raises the debt limit, that your 1330 target will be met. Maybe we overshoot to 1379? Not really a big deal to me. Thanks again!

  2. First, I don't hold myself out as an EW expert. I mooch off of much smarter guys like But, as Dan says, and I agree, we're either in a triangle, trying to finish out minor 4 and launch 5 of C of P[2], or we're in [iii] of minor 1 of P[3]. He's got a great discussion and weighing of the options on yesterday's and today's pages.

    As to whether 1379 makes sense…clearly it would depend on whether one or the other of the above scenarios is playing out. My view is that we're going up to the mid-line of the channel referred to in the "Update: Channel Surfing" post. It's around 1330 today and rises to 1340 by August 11 (the 87th day).

    If 1370 was the top, this mid-line is likely as good as it gets. If we're on our way up to a new minor 5 high, then obviously we'll have more upside. And 1379 is a reasonable assumption, although who would be surprised if 5 were truncated?

    I'm working on another post about all this, hope to have it up late tonight or in the a.m.

  3. If we rally to S&P; 1329 area and then move down. What would the Elliott count be? Also, do you see a possible 1379 target?