I suppose the most stunning news over the weekend was that Disney World has reopened in Florida – where daily new cases just topped the worst that New York ever saw, deaths are also on the rise, and which has the highest percentage (17%) of those over 65. Of the 269,811 confirmed cases, 4,242 (1.6%) have resulted in death.
One has to wonder about the sanity – not of the politicians and financiers who, to no one’s surprise, prioritize money over public safety – but of the parents who are flouting Darwinism to lead their children through those gates into a giant petri dish that has the potential to end lives. Would they be so cavalier if the rides carried a 1.6% fatality risk?
The algos ignored any COVID-19 related news, of course, and spiked even higher on the mention of the word “vaccine” on CNBC, much as they did last year every time “news” of a China trade deal was leaked.
Madness.
In the meantime, ES has reached the .886 Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the June 9 highs – a potential turning point unless the .886 of the drop from Feb 19 is the ultimate goal.
For an explanation, look no further than VIX which has again tested the yellow trend line from the January lows.
continued for members…
The two .886s have been on our radar for months – just never thought it would come to this. 
Each has the potential to shape the falling channel in its own way. We’ll find out when we find out – though I still don’t see new all-time highs unless a vaccine is widely available.
With the futures where they are, SPX will top its .886 of the June highs. Like ES, it has the potential to ramp up to the higher .886 (at 3256.53.)
Like ES, it will determine the slope of the falling channel and, ultimately, the timing and level of any new lows. 
I continue to believe that holding the yellow channel will be the goal. There’s plenty of time to get back down to the 2.24 at 2703.62.
As we’ve discussed countless times, VIX is still the wild card. The yellow TL and the SMA200 below it are still critically important. A drop through either should be enough to drive stocks to whatever upside target is in order.
CL and RB continue to cycle, with drops overnight during the low volume after hours turning into intraday rallies. CL, in particular, has broken down – below both its red TL and white channel bottom. 
RB is hanging in there, with the potential to rally up to its SMA200 if need be. 
A reminder – tomorrow we’ll get the CPI announcement and a better idea of what lies ahead for oil, gas and interest rates — which our charts still say will sink significantly over the balance of the year.
In the meantime, the 10Y continues to backtest after breaking down. 
This puts the 2s10s back in neutral territory.
USDJPY is higher, but is still backtesting – theoretically on marginally higher rates. 
Though that explanation falls flat when one considers how poorly the dollar is faring against the euro.
An important test is coming up for DXY.
DJI has another shot at retaking its SMA200 this morning. It has failed many times before. 
An aside: DB is threatening to run up and tag the .886 it narrowly missed on Jun 8. From there, it’s a very short distance to the top of the falling white channel currently at 10.97. 
I have several appointments today which will make it tough to post intraday. I hope to post again between 2:30-3:00 but it will be touch and go.
I continue to look for a pullback on GC, but will gladly switch to long on any push up through 1823.
UPDATE: 11:57 AM
AAPL just tagged its 1.618 extension. Note that at this price, the gray and white .618s are at the same level. I think this would be an excellent chance to short with very tight stops.