Intra-day: September 22, 2011

EOD:  2:20 AM

The two fractals I’m watching:

2011 vs 2007/8 suggests we’re 1/3 – 1/2 way to the Minor 5 low, so probably a new low early to mid next week, with a rally followed by the wave 5 low itself.

And, the past two months versus the Feb – Jul 2011 top… it also argues for the new low sometime early to mid next week.

UPDATE:  11:30 AM

Also, looking ahead, we’ve completed 3 1/2 legs of a crab pattern.  We turned at the .886 and our target is the 1.618 extension at 1053.

I feel confident of this number, since it also intersects with Fan Line E and is within 13 points of the 2010 lows.  Speculating here, but an educated guess is we’ll hit 1053, bounce back up to Fan Line D at 1080 or so before completing [v] of Minor 1 down at 1040 (the Aug 2010 low) or the H&S; target of 1020-1030.

I’m currently looking for Minor 2 to backtest Fan Line 6, which by the end of the year should be up around 1150.  But this forecast is a work in progress.  I’ll probably do more over the weekend on it.

See chart below for a better view.

UPDATE:  11:15 AM

Looking ahead, potential bounces at 1107, 1101 and 1088. 

1107:  fan line 7 (just added this one)
1101:  previous low Aug 9
1086:  fan line D


Posts will be spotty while the market is jumping around like this.  Playing the downside, but also grabbing some profits on bounces.

We’ve completed the big H&S; pattern, target = 1020-1030.  Measured move target = 980.

Watch these fan/trend lines for bounce opportunities.  Just had one at fan line 6, bounced back to backtest the H&S; neckline (fan line 5) before heading on south.


Intra-day: September 22, 2011 — 2 Comments