EOD: 2:20 AM
The two fractals I’m watching:
2011 vs 2007/8 suggests we’re 1/3 – 1/2 way to the Minor 5 low, so probably a new low early to mid next week, with a rally followed by the wave 5 low itself.
And, the past two months versus the Feb – Jul 2011 top… it also argues for the new low sometime early to mid next week.
UPDATE: 11:30 AM
Also, looking ahead, we’ve completed 3 1/2 legs of a crab pattern. We turned at the .886 and our target is the 1.618 extension at 1053.
I feel confident of this number, since it also intersects with Fan Line E and is within 13 points of the 2010 lows. Speculating here, but an educated guess is we’ll hit 1053, bounce back up to Fan Line D at 1080 or so before completing [v] of Minor 1 down at 1040 (the Aug 2010 low) or the H&S; target of 1020-1030.
I’m currently looking for Minor 2 to backtest Fan Line 6, which by the end of the year should be up around 1150. But this forecast is a work in progress. I’ll probably do more over the weekend on it.
See chart below for a better view.
UPDATE: 11:15 AM
Looking ahead, potential bounces at 1107, 1101 and 1088.
1107: fan line 7 (just added this one)
1101: previous low Aug 9
1086: fan line D
ORIGINAL POST: 10:55 AM
Posts will be spotty while the market is jumping around like this. Playing the downside, but also grabbing some profits on bounces.
We’ve completed the big H&S; pattern, target = 1020-1030. Measured move target = 980.
Watch these fan/trend lines for bounce opportunities. Just had one at fan line 6, bounced back to backtest the H&S; neckline (fan line 5) before heading on south.