Intra-day: September 21, 2011

UPDATE:  3:45 PM

We failed to stop at 1183, so the trip to 1196 is kaput.  I am watching, however, a possible turn at 1145.

Here’s the scenario:

It’s a potential Bat or Crab.  Each of them calls for a Point B at the .382, which is what we had.  The difference is that a Bat pattern calls for a Point D at the .886, while a Crab calls for an extension to the 1.618 of leg XA.

So, a Bat would reverse at 1145.64, while a Crab would take us to 1084.16 first.  Do I care?  Not really, because 1145 would complete the huge H&S; pattern we’ve been watching.   We’d possibly see a little bounce there, but the H&S; pattern would target 1020-1030 (obviously, the Crab also completes the H&S; pattern.)

Either way, the market is going down big time.

UPDATE:  3:20 PM

My guess is the reversal at 1193.61 (sorry!) will serve as the Point B for a larger Gartley that takes us to 1196.44 for a bigger reversal at that pattern’s .786.  Note we turned within .03 of the .618 retrace of the 2:20 pm high.

If we turn back up prior to 1183.33, look for the rebound and sharp reversal at 1196.


Little Gartley set up on SPX, should reverse at 1193.47.

Note, however, that we didn’t quite reach the .618 on Point B — meaning it could end up being a Bat pattern.  The difference is whether we turn at the .786 at 1193.47 or the .886 at 1194.76.

As always, stops are a good idea.

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