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With the holiday-shortened hours today, I’ll focus on catching up on some secondary charts. In the meantime, look for ES to backtest the SMA20 at 2077ish and for CL to regulate whether it dips much lower than that.
It has a chance to break out on a small, completed IH&S (purple) on Wednesday. It backed off, choosing instead to wait until yesterday when it completed a larger IH&S (red) — which it also failed to follow through on.
CL is repeating last week’s pattern of dipping overnight. The question is always whether or not it’ll rebound back to the rising purple channel, ramping stocks higher in time for the close. 
For its part, USDJPY is poking up above the falling white channel top — with the key word being “falling.” The regular pre-opening ramp has been underway since 3am. One would think traders would catch on to this pattern of rallying during NYSE market hours, followed by new lows.
But, traders are far outweighed by the influence of algos, which care not about such things. When USDJPY rallies, they’re right there with it. Though a concurrently falling CL, as we’ve seen, can outweigh the bullish impact.
Should our initial target not hold, there are a number of more interesting (and more supportive targets down below.) Some key moving averages, in particular, are long overdue for a backtest.
continued for members…SPX’s initial targets include the SMA20 at 2080.60, with the white channel midline providing interim support around 2083ish — depending on when it occurs.
The ES chart above shows an interesting target opportunity at the SMA100/SMA50 way down at 2027. For SPX, this would equate to 2034. But, I suspect the SMA200 at 2065 would be pretty hard to get past. So, we’ll set this as our medium range downside case for now.
I’ve sketched in a potential falling white channel that would serve as a flag pattern to accommodate the drop without damaging the overall bullish picture.
Much of this, of course, will depend on whether or not CL and USDJPY play along. USDJPY has stopped short (3 times) of backtesting its white .618 after the .786 tag on the 18th. It appears likely to happen, as does the SMA100 tag, but will only happen when TPTB are good and ready.