Futures are slightly higher ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech at 10am ET. Fed watchers will be focused on his inflation comments. He has been quite hawkish in his past comments, but rates have been stuck at 3.50-3.75% since last December. Will he finally signal a rate hike to deal with stubborn inflation?  We’ll see.

Much of what determines the market’s action between now and the midterms will rest on the outcome of the pennant pattern in WTI. It must either break out or break down in the next week. I suspect a breakout, but the administration has been pretty effective in suppressing prices so far.

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