The S&P 500 has certainly had its ups and downs this year. However, it’s currently bumping up against the channel line that has limited its upside ever since November 8, 2024 – less than 4 points or 0.06% per session. Bottom line, if 2025 is to turn into an impressive year it had better ignore the Sep/Oct bearish seasonal factors and get a move on.

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If it hugs the channel line, then the upside is probably another 5% between now and the end of the year.

The futures:

Note that the 10, 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages for VIX are essentially flat.  There’s a good chance of another backtest of the SMA200 around Oct 20.