With CPI notching only slightly higher than expected yesterday and PPI coming in plenty low (0.0% MoM, 0.9% YoY) the FOMC will have a difficult time convincing algos that there isn’t a rate cut coming in the spring.

Futures continued their meltup… …driven largely by VIX’s repeated meltdown.Ramp it up overnight so you can hammer it just prior to the opening the next morning. Works every time…

continued for members…

SPX is only 24 points from its .886 – well ahead of schedule with OPEX also coming up this Friday. Currencies continue their stable ways for now…

…as do CL and RB.

TNX is only slightly lower, and has still not broken its TL from Dec 2021.

But, it has dropped more in the past week than has the 2Y…

…and, of course, is threatening a much bigger breakdown. Long-time members will remember that breakdowns in 2s10s typically lead to corrections. It’s breakouts which lead to crashes. This breakdown could be an exception, as it reverses a painful and expensive breakout by the 10Y of a very long, well-established channel. A breakdown back into that channel would be very welcome by the market (despite the damage which might be done to the general economy if the inflation spigot is turned back on prematurely.)This means a clear breakdown in the 2s10s.