No one really expects the FOMC to change interest rates, but a great deal of attention will be paid to Powell’s comments, if any, on the impact tariffs will have on the economy and the Fed’s policy.

The overnight ramp job is ebbing, with futures currently about 10 points higher.

Our charts turned bearish almost a week ago, though there has been less clarity on the extent of a pullback.

continued for members…

Can the channel backtest hold? It largely depends on how hawkish Powell sounds re inflation risks from tariffs. It’s no surprise that the first potentially substantive trade meeting between the US and China was announced on an FOMC decision day. It’s almost as if Trump is daring the Fed to do anything other than lower rates.

RSI in both SPX and VIX has been very helpful in signaling a downturn. VIX continues to inch higher since bottoming on May 2. Currencies have really quieted down, with USDJPY bouncing back to reclaim some of yesterday’s losses but running into overhead resistance at its SMA10 and SMA20.. …while EURUSD has support at both its SMA10 and SMA20.Together, this suggests ongoing weakness for the USD. CL and RB are both slightly lower……with TNX following suit.