Futures are off almost 1% in advance of tomorrow’s FOMC announcement and press conference.

While traders are nearly unanimous that there won’t be a rate cut tomorrow, there is less certainty as to how explicit Powell’s comments on the impact of tariffs will be. Many corporations are forecasting significant declines in earnings or pulling their forecasts all together.

continued for members…

There is very little clarity as to whether stocks will test recent lows or just backtest the broken channel, though the fundamental situation would seem to call for the more bearish case.
SPX is suggesting a less steep falling channel, added in white below. The previous white channel is now shown in gray. Note the RSI chart is bearish for both SPX, VX and VIX.

USDJPY is off fairly sharply this morning, with EURUSD up slightly. DXY is paying the price.

CL and RB are both bouncing sharply after testing recent lows.

Stay tuned…