Pretty quiet here in the pre-market.  Futures have been mostly flat for the past few hours after yesterday’s failed attempt to hold the 1.272.The best allegory I’ve seen this morning is AAPL, which has been riding its SMA5 200 every day since breaking out above our 178.46 target.  Yesterday, just shy of its SMA200, it finally gave in to the pressure.A pause, or a sign of things to come?

continued for members…

Perhaps the best example of how manipulated this market has been is COMP.  Recall that it broke down from its rising red channel only to complete a H&S and plunge to below its huge white channel midline. 

The nonsensical bounce took it back above much overhead resistance to the point where has fleshed out a very gently falling channel which could extend the biggest potential losses out for a year or more. Will the Fed say and do the right things today?

If the algos are pleased, we should see VIX tag or take out the yellow channel bottom.  If not, we still have some nice juicy upside targets.

The 10Y looks likely to finally reach its next downside target. And, the EURUSD is still hinting at a much lower tag of its SMA200 than when we first identified the possibility months ago. If so, look for DXY to complete its (much less dramatic) backtest.Perhaps the best indicator of TPTB’s goals today is the USDJPY.  Its SMA200 at 111.442 is an excellent line in the sand for bears/bulls. CL and RB are off slightly after reaching their next upside targets yesterday.  The only question is home much of a decline we’ll see before they’re pressed into service to prop up stocks. ES’s second channel (after the first broke down) made new highs mostly on VIX’s back. There are almost countless downside targets – every SMA and quite a few important Fibs and gaps.  These are my favorites. And, for SPX… ES just reached its first real test – the neckline of a little H&S targeting 2800 – the location of the SMA20, purple .786 and two different channel midlines.

I must apologize for taking so long to post the study I’ve been working on.  I’m very excited about the possibilities.  Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately, I keep discovering new angles to explore — many of which are helping to flesh out a more unified theory of how and when different factors are used to determine equity prices.

Instead of trying to get everything perfectly in line before posting it, I’ll post different installments as I finish them.  Then, perhaps, at the end, I’ll go back and do a massive edit that ties it all together.

First installment coming up.