FOMC Day: Jun 14, 2017

It’s been a long, lonely slog since we first forecast the very contrarian view that plunging inflation would prevent the FOMC from raising rates in June.  The last time I checked, Goldman had the probability of a hike at 95%.

But, as we discussed in The Big Picture, May 3 the drop in oil prices was likely to push CPI below 2%. We reiterated this view the following week [see: Bye-Bye Rate Hikes.]

Guess what the BLS just reported?

The Fed might or might not hike rates anyway.  They still have five hours to mull things over.  But, the currency targets we laid out over these past couple of months look very likely to be tagged today. And, every single one is screaming “no rate hike!”

We listed the major ones yesterday:

I continue to think the real opportunity tomorrow lies with currencies and oil.  Here’s a quick summary:

– DX, currently at 97.05, going to 96.07-96.14
– EURUSD, currently at 1.1199, going to 1.1470
– USDJPY, currently at 110.05, going to 108.82

Whether or not we get the full follow through will depend on how things go starting at 2pm.  But, we’re off to a very nice start.

continued for members


Sorry, this content is for members only.

Click here to get access.


Already a member? Login below

Remember me (for 2 weeks)

Forgot Password