Almost every chart I follow is threatening a 10/20 cross, meaning we are clearly at an important threshold in the markets.  ES is out front, having already completed (no surprise) a bullish cross overnight. Will the rest follow through?

continued for members…

Note that this is ES’ fifth crack at backtesting its broken white channel. The previous incursions didn’t last. So, the picture remains just muddled enough to leave multiple paths open.

SPX should complete a 10/20 cross as well – though it’s anyone’s guess whether it and ES’ will hold.  If they do, it’s unlikely we’ll get another leg down any time soon.Especially since VIX has very convincingly broken down and backtested its rising white channel. It’s .01 away from its own 10/20 bearish cross (bullish for stocks.) USDJPY is threatening a bullish 10/20 cross and is nearing the top of its falling purple channel…

…though DXY is threatening a bearish 10/20 cross. And, EURUSD remains in a bearish cross.GC and SI continue to look vulnerable here. The bond market is closed today, so we have to look at the futures. Note that ZN has reached the bottom of the rising red channel. If it breaks down, then the 10Y is rising further and the 2s10s will break out even more – dangerous for stocks. If it rebounds, then the 2s10s will retreat from its breakout as the former ones have.

The biggest surprises among our charts have been CL and RB. CL’s falling white channel is shifting and it has regained the rising purple channel. The EIA inventory data won’t be released until tomorrow due to the holiday. But, note that a continuation of the latest ramp could easily put the SMA50 back on top of the SMA200.I’ve adjusted the falling white channel for RB, and it seems like a decent fit.  But, again, a potential 10/20 cross.

continuing…