Retail sales for October came in hot at 1.7% MoM vs 1.4% expected. Excluding gas and motor vehicles, sales gained 1.4%. These are the highest prints since March’s blowout data and represented strong results across the board. Strong Walmart and Home Depot results underscored the print.Note that retail sales are adjusted for seasonal factors, but not for price changes. In other words, the increase was aided by inflation – 0.83% in October.

Futures are off slightly as we await capacity utilization and industrial production.continued for members…

The equities picture…  While ES looks like a breakout (as long as the SMA10 backtest holds)…

…SPX still has a clearer path to the downside.  VIX remains below the white channel top, though the SMA10 is holding so far and a golden cross is getting closer. Arguing vehemently against an equity selloff, USDJPY has broken out from its latest holding pattern. A breakout to new highs would seal the deal as long as VIX can remain muted.It’s more fuel to the rising DXY fire… …driven primarily by EURUSD, which is almost to our next downside target.  Update on EURUSD on deck…CL and RB continue their gradual, managed declines.

Gold and silver are still on precipices, with drops more likely than not. And, BTC has plunged sharply, tagging its SMA50 and nearing our cloud target. Since its decline was postponed, a tag of the dotted blue .786 channel line would require a drop through the cloud top and the odds are therefore somewhat lower.

UPDATE: 12:30 PM

Yep, it really is this simple to force the market algos higher. A breakdown in VIX…

…and a breakout in USDJPY… …forces a breakout in SPX.ES is now set up for an OPEX date with its 1.618.