ES reached our first downside target overnight and, depending on whether or not DXY can extend its bounce and how much effort goes into suppressing VIX, could be in for more. Spiraling coronavirus infection and hospitalization rates in many states and countries are once again starting to get their share of attention.

continued for members…The bigger picture:

ES is sitting right at its SMA10, so it has yet to commit to any further downturn.

SPX’s is at 3561.50 – just a few points lower. Note that VIX has again backtested the yellow TL from the Feb lows – the same feature that prevented it from escalating several times over the past week. Its SMA10 is at 24.It has TL, channel and SMA100 resistance at 25.85-26.70.

And, DXY has yet to break down – thanks principally to USDJPY’s knee-jerk reaction to lower prices.But, it hasn’t managed to push up past its SMA10, so this is probably just another delay. What is breaking down – at least a little – is GC and SI. We’ve been waiting quite a while for the SMA200 backtests. Looks like it’s imminent – at least for GC. The 10Y is still settling lower……pinning the 2s10s at a backtest of its support/resistance at 68-69 bps. UPDATE:  3:50PM

What a waste of a trading day.  Nothing happening here other than a 15-pt gain based on stimulus “conversations” between Schumer and McConnell.