Charts I’m Watching: October 7, 2011

PATH TO 350: Day 8

Almost done with this counter-move.  My forecast is <1040 by October 17, so we'd better do a hard bounce off the channel line and get started on wave 5 sehr schnell.

Note that today our shadow hit the channel line, but we closed well within the channel itself.  A move to 1182 would leave a shadow above the channel line, but should close below it.

Postings will be spotty next week.  I’m traveling on business, and… I did promise myself I’d cut back on the old pebblewriter treadmill.   Haven’t done very well in keeping that promise yet…

BTW, daily page views have nearly doubled these past couple of days.  Anyone know why? 

UPDATE:  4:10 PM

Looks like we’re working on completing the 2d wave of the final five to 1182.  Whatever the wave count, we’ve completed four legs of a possible Crab Pattern that began at this morning’s 1171 high.

Crabs’ Point B is at the .886 of the XA leg.  As the chart shows, we came within 47 cents of that level before the last minute dip to the close (aka Point C.)

Crabs complete at the 1.618 XA extension.  In this case, that works out to 1184.87, just 2.81 away from our .886 fib target.  The move up to 1182-1184 should come quickly next week, followed by an even swifter reversal.

UPDATE:  3:00 PM

DX looking ripe.

UPDATE:  1:30 PM

I expect it’ll look something like this.

Here’s the corresponding dollar chart, also showing a corrective wave within the counter-trend decline.  Near-term correction should continue to the .886 at 78.131, followed by a resumption of the climb to at least 80.635.   Note, that’s the .886 Fib of DX’s Bat pattern.  If we blow through (accompanying a more serious market crash) then the upside is to the 1.618 at 87.058.


Should catch at 1155 and reverse to 1180 if this is a Bat playing out.  If it evolves into a Butterfly, it might extend to the 1.272 at 1148.

1148, BTW, is close to the .618 (1149.60) of the larger Bat pattern we’re following — the one that indicated 1182 as our upside.  So, I’m inclined to believe this morning’s decline is a Butterfly.  The only difference, of course, is we should expect a stronger snap-back.

Also, note that at 1148, this corrective wave 4 is equal to wave 2 from Oct 4.

updated chart 1:07 pm

We’ve completed another H&S; pattern on the 5-minute charts, that could push us further down.  But, the last one didn’t play out, and we do have good horizontal support as well as the .886 here.  If the Bat morphs into a Butterfly, the downside is 1148 – only 3 pts away from the H&S; target of 1145.


Charts I’m Watching: October 7, 2011 — 7 Comments

  1. Pebble,

    I love your work! I think you've nailed it! I'm an FIN MS student and would like to fly you in to Dallas for a day or two and have you consult my father and I on how to use your system. Please feel free to email me at: or call me at 469.951.3148. My name is Brett. Thanks man.

  2. Thanks Pebble.

    The WHY is that it is looking like an ABC move off the "bottom" of 1075 if that was the bottom.

    Smaller abc of a=1171 (this morning) b=11140ish c= 11187ish to complete the larger A.

    The larger B= (guessing here) 1120ish?

    Then C= 1225-1250ish by year end.

    Then a large C down.

    Hope that's clear.

  3. Pebble,

    SPXU has retraced 88.6% at today low and probably completed a BAT. It seems that a 3 drive pattern is probably in the making from 20 Sep, the last peak is 1.272 times the length of the previous rise from 20 to 23 Sep.

    If so, can I expect this rise (the 3rd drive) to complete at 1.272 times of the total length from 20 Sep to 4 Oct ? or is it 1.272 times from 27 Sep to 4 Oct ?

  4. If it can only rally back to 1160-1168 by the close I would watch for and ABC move.

    That would be 1136 by tues then rally again to about 1187 (A)

    Sell off to after that should be stronger but not new lows (B), then a very strong rally (C).

    Just something to watch.