I’m going short at the opening.  There are a number of channels offering support – notably down around 1450, but we’ll see how many will hold.  If SPX loses support at the pink channel (an echo of Sep 14 – Sep 25) around 1454, the top of the red channel is down around 1450.

Charts in a few…

UPDATE:  10:55 AM

So far, the channel line around 1454 is holding.   But, again, there are different ways to interpret this channel.  We won’t really know until we get a stop and can plot the lower bound a little better.  Watch your stops (1461?), but if the red channel breaks there’s additional downside to 1450 or 1447.

I’m traveling the next couple of days, so my posts will be a little spotty.  I finished the forecast I mentioned Friday, and almost got it posted this morning when the market opened.  I’ll post it after the close for members.

Next post in about an hour.

continued for members…

UPDATE:  12:45 PM

Not much going on still.  The 60-min RSI shows the conflict SPX is feeling at 1454.

Here’s the close up of the channels in conflict:

UPDATE:  3:00 PM

It’s the last hour of the day, when things usually get going if they’re going to…  Readers following closely might remember the channel study I started a week or so ago.  Basically, there are a number of distinct channels that recur frequently in each cycle up (and down.)

The steepest is the pink, followed by the white, yellow and purple.  Within a major move up, prices follow the white to a certain point, at which they accelerate to follow the yellow, then the purple.

It works the same way on the way down, too. When the purple breaks, look for prices to fall to the yellow, and then to the white.  If the white is broken, that’s when we get significant declines — that generally follow the red channel down (three are visible above.)

The pink channel is a kind of early warning system, as it’s the steepest and typically the first to go.  I’ve drawn a huge pink channel above in recognition of the fact that such channels exist in multiple scales.  Note the much smaller version that’s guided the past two weeks.

I’ll post more after the close, but I wanted to put this out there because the closeup view on the 60-min chart illustrates the market’s current predicament.

The pink channel (1) is currently holding, but if it breaks the next 4 targets are a little more clear to see.  More after the close.