CPI came in hotter than expected: 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Core came in at 0.3%. Under the hood, grocery prices rose 0.4% and electricity prices popped 0.9%.

A YoY change wasn’t reported due to last year’s government shutdown – which, thanks to the midterm results and Hegseth’s impeachment, is likely to repeat this year.

Despite CL breaking down…

…TNX is breaking out.

Note that RB, which had set up a big fat flag pattern pointing to much higher prices, has now broken down – though it will run into support when backtesting the large yellow channel at 2.49ish.

There’s a lot of speculation regarding Trump’s demeanor in the coming weeks/months, particularly as it relates to the Iran War. I have no problem believing that he’ll lose it at some point, going all in on an aggressive ramp up in hostilities as payback.

I suspect the war will go quiet for a short while, then get much hotter in the coming weeks until Trump ultimately steps down “for health reasons” in a deal with Congress that offers resignation in lieu of his third and final impeachment.

continuing…