I’m on the road today, but wanted to post a few quick charts.  The biggest development last night was oil, which continued falling after breaking through the support we discussed several days ago.

continued for members…

CL tested the SMA200 for several days before finally closing below it on Monday.  I had really expected the moving average to hold, so had deleted the additional downside targets a couple of weeks ago.

Here’s a chart from last month, with those targets still intact.  The red .786 at 42.68 and the purple .618 at 37.2 still work. But, note that CL just tagged (close enough) the midline of our preferred red channel and is getting a nice bounce.

We also have to think about what even lower prices would mean: a big drop in inflation — relieving all pressure to raise rates, and potentially even more accommodative measures.  There are a few Fed official slated to give speeches today, so it’ll be interesting to hear what they have to say.

I’m actually glad the white channel finally broke down.  It never made much sense to me as the upside it indicated was always pretty ludicrous.

CL’s initial plunge has been bought, probably just to ensure the damage is contained before markets open.  Could be that 43.76 was the bottom, in which case we should get a backtest of the broken white channel.Futures have managed to hold steady thus far, but our downside targets remain intact should they be allowed to play out.

VIX is still within striking distance of its all-time lows.

And, USDJPY never quite reached its SMA100 yesterday, meaning it can ramp quite a bit without actually breaking out.  Of course, if it does break out, there is plenty of room between current prices and its ultimate upside target at 120.11.That’s about it for now.  I might get a chance to post later this afternoon.

GLTA.