Futures are up modestly ahead of the open, with consumer confidence due at 10AM.

continued for members… SPX closed slightly above its SMA200 yesterday, though ES is still well below its.

EURUSD is still hanging in there, still avoiding its SMA200. While USDJPY has reached and is reacting to that red TL from its recent highs.  Decision time. The combination suggests additional dollar strength – as does the oil and gas picture.CL has pushed back into its flag pattern and is now up about 7% since Mar 5.  RB is heading for another test of its yellow TL.

This means upward pressure on the 10Y, which is back to a 32 bps margin over the 2Y. Bottom line, this is technically a meaningful rebound that should have legs. However, it’s a pretty big bet to go long with PCE due out on Friday and the Apr 2 tariffs right around the corner.