Usual USDJPY-inspired ramp job on no news…
Placement of the latest SPX channel is open to interpretation. The bullish view…
And, the less bullish view…
Since the banks forced ES up overnight, we’ll assume the purple channel for now. But, it’s the larger purple channel that needs to break down if the bears are going to get any satisfaction.
The USDJPY H&S that was thwarted, but isn’t quite dead.
Sunday/Monday’s spike above the channel top was quickly reversed. We’ll keep an eye on today’s.
UPDATE: 9:45 AM
Completed Bat Pattern on ES at 1863..close enough? We’ll see if the channel top can hold a third time.
Consumer confidence and new home numbers coming up at 10AM EST.
UPDATE: 10:30 AM
Consumer confidence is up, but couldn’t break out. And, new housing sales (contracts) continue to slump. Cue the fizzle (news out of China about multiple bank runs won’t help.)
continued for members…
The Dow’s chart is far clearer than SPX. If the current rally fades, look for a completion of the H&S Pattern which targets the purple .786.
The only reversal so far was at the .382, and that points to a Bat Pattern at the .886. But, the .886 would represent a sizable drop below the white channel bottom (even more than the .786.)
The .618 (15785) seems to intersect with the white channel bottom on Monday, Mar 31. And, it represents a downward 1.618 extension of the 16046 to 16456 bump. So, I’d not be surprised by a stop or pause there.
The SPX equivalents of a .618, .786 or .886 retrace of the rally since Feb 5 are 1793, 1769 and 1755.
Comments
One response to “Charts I’m Watching: Mar 25, 2014”
Hello PW, you had the article “Eye candies of Bear”. It has very good points to show the bear case. However, I wonder how a bear case would play out when the market is so bullish. Almost every day, the market jumps up with no news. (sometimes, it jumps up on good news. More often, it jumps up on bad news). This affects me because I am not bullish among the people I know. I get some complaints and criticism with a tiny bearish view. Every time, the Dow jumps 100 points or more, I get a message “here is your bearish view again”. I feel lost. (It does not mean if the market crashes, I am proven myself right. It is just that I feel wrong and strange for not with the crowds)