The breakout fell flat, yesterday.  ES might have closed 26 points off the ramp highs had VIX not performed its usual theatrics.  Futures are essentially flat this morning as we await Fedspeak from Williams (centrist) and Mester (hawk.)  Despite nearly unanimous expectations for a rate cut in July, most of the recent such comments have tilted hawkish.Will today’s comments support the prevailing view? I’m not so sure.  And, I’m not so sure it matters that much.  The 10Y continues to cling tenuously to 2%.continued for members…The DXY has presumably finished its backtest.

…while the 2s10s remains in limbo. This left SPX slightly below its former highs with most of its downside targets intact.CL and RB remain on edge as Iran reportedly walked out of the Vienna OPEC meeting… …and USDJPY has failed to break out.EURUSD looked just awful yesterday, dropping back through its SMA200.  Its rising channel is technically still intact.I threw my back out over the weekend, and sitting is just no fun right now.  I’m going to sign off for an hour or two and see if I can get it to calm down.

More later.

UPDATE: 1:15 PM

Heading to the doc, but first a quick update.

VIX is the only factor making it possible for stocks to remain relatively flat.  Otherwise, we’d be down at least 1% between USDJPY and CL’s declines and TNX’s new low.