SPX is slated to challenge its 1.618 extension on the open after strong moves in the currency market and continuing hesitation by oil/gas.

The bond market continues to be the real risk to the bull case.

continued for members…

ES has retaken the purple acceleration channel, putting SPX in position to challenge 5638.

If it can maintain this channel, ES’s 1.618 could come as soon as next week. But SPX needs to top 5638 first.

EURUSD is still edging higher, which allowed DXY to backtest its SMA200 after its recent breakdown.

Oil and gas are still drifting lower toward their SMA200s. If they can drop through them, equities should get very excited. It all boils down to the 10Y, which is still very close to a breakdown.

Note that the risk of the 2s10s breaking out remains very high.Stay tuned…