pebblewriter

Charts I’m Watching: Jul 16, 2015

Written by

pebblewriter

in

As Draghi drones on, we’re reminded once again that central bankers abhor “markets” that dare fall while they’re pontificating.

The ECB?  Swiss?  It doesn’t really matter, as the eminis are up 10 points with 15 minutes to go till the cash open.

2015-07-16 ES daily 0619While EURUSD approaches our long-awaited downside target, the stage is being set for another gap opening for equities that will see them jump up past key resistance points.

continued for members…

SPX will pretty clearly exceed all natural points for a reversal on its way to the top of the falling purple channel.

2015-07-16 SPX daily 0619It came up just shy of the white .786 yesterday, but should easily surpass it on the opening with a more likely goal the gray .886 at 2120.08 or the white one at 2124.37.  Don’t be surprised, however, if it crests a little lower in order to avoid reaching a reversal point during the trading day (just like yesterday.)

I’d play along on the long side until the purple channel (2120ish), then reassess.  Odds are the move will run out of juice between 2120-2124.

UPDATE:  9:34 AM

That’s probably enough.  I’d want to be short here at 2119.75.

2015-07-16 SPX daily 0634If I’m wrong, it’s either because we’re a little early — or really, really wrong about a significant retracement. Check out VIX, which has reached the yellow channel bottom again.  The last two tags produced SPX drops of 55 and 80 points respectively.

2015-07-16 VIX daily 0658UPDATE:  11:30 AM

This is pretty nutty, even for this “market.” Everything else — CL, USDJPY, VIX, etc — suggests a retracement.  But, the algo meltup has continued into the trading session, with every single tiny dip immediately bought.   Dumping the short, going to cash.  I’ll consider jumping back in at 2124ish or if it breaks trend — any trend — to the downside.

2015-07-16 SPX 1 0826Putting on my tin foil hat for a moment, it also seems to me that the Delivering Alpha conference is usually a fertile environment for a melt-up.  Which of those firms wants any kind of correction whilst the industry is receiving extra attention?

UPDATE:  3:39 PM

SPX up to 2124.25, 12 cents shy of the white .886.  Since we’ve had one ramp job after another this past week, I’d be leery of holding short overnight.  With 20 minutes left in the session, not much room for any action — especially with Yellen still going.

Warren coming up!

2015-07-15 SPX daily 1239

 

More posts