Charts I’m Watching: Jan 16, 2025

Futures are modestly higher in listless trading this morning following mixed economic data.

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The key charts to watch today are whether SPX can push above and remain above its SMA50 (5957.94) and whether VIX breaks down.

At this point, the bounce still feels like more of a head fake designed to push the next leg down out a little further into the end of the month or early Feb. But, head fakes are notoriously/purposely difficult to suss out. So, caution is warranted.
Even with a modest pop on the open, SPX’s channel top is pretty obvious.We’ll also be watching to see whether VIX remains below its SMA200.

TNX, like VIX, is positioned in a place that suggests higher stock prices – yet hasn’t really broken down after breaking out above the channel top.

And, the 2s10s remains broken out above the trend line signaling an equity correction. Stay tuned…