Charts I’m Watching: Dec 19, 2013

I suppose yesterday would rank right up there as one of the more impressive dip buys ever.  It was not, as the talking heads would have you think, the market’s acceptance of the taper as no big deal.

From yesterday’s Bye-Bye Ben:

My expectation?  Whether they taper or not, TPTB are standing by with buckets of cash to buy any dips that appear.

And, that’s exactly what they did — the better to sell investors on the idea that everything’s just fine, that the market won’t miss that $10 billion/month or any amount they decide to taper.

Just in case the message didn’t get through… today’s a big POMO day.  Trade safe.

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The futures are digesting some of yesterday’s gains.  Looks like we have most of an A-B-C with the B and C of the C leg maybe down to 1790ish?

While the dollar is following the path we laid out with uncanny precision.

continued for membersUPDATE:  11:35 AM

Looking for a reversal at the top of the white channel to complete the B of C.  Probably just barely higher than 1802.25 in order to run the most stops possible.

Tagging the purple .786 at 1802.86 or .886 at 1803.86 would take ES just beyond the channel top and the previous high of 1802.25, triggering a lot of buy orders just in time for the drop.

Maybe we’re going higher first, but this sure doesn’t feel impulsive.  Just thinking out loud…

UPDATE:  12:15 PM

The further the rising triangle gets without breaking down, the more inclined I am to think that this little Flag Pattern is all we’re going to get.  I believe the POMO is scheduled for 1PM.

UPDATE:  1:07 PM

Maybe something like this?

The IH&S targets the white 1.618 around 1814.

UPDATE:  1:45 PM

There’s the neckline completion at 1804.25.  Should loosen things up a bit.  SPX tagged its .886 10 minutes ago.

UPDATE:  2:50 PM

Depending on how deep the retrace goes…

UPDATE:  3:21 PM

Waiting on 12:34…  It usually marks the turning point for the ramp job.  Maybe today it’ll mark the turning point for a quick plunge to 1799 (a .618 retrace from 1805.50.)

The nice thing about a flat neckline is that the right shoulder doesn’t have to be as deep in order to be symmetrical.  Be careful…this market  doesn’t need an IH&S to shoot up to 1837.  It has all the help it needs in the PPT as was so vividly demonstrated yesterday.

UPDATE:  3:46 PM

Here ya go…

ES just matched this morning’s high at 1804.75 — still shy of yesterday’s 1806.75.  Guess we’ll get a last second break-down for a change — leave the guys who just went long after getting stopped out with a tough choice…

SPX came within 1-pt of yesterday’s 1811.08, still a little below the high from Dec 9 of 1811.52.  This completes a nice Bat Pattern from Nov 29’s 1813.55.

The dollar looks like it’s about to break out if it can get past the white midline and the yellow midline intersection.  Note the SPX values in yellow on the chart: 1758, 1754 and now 1760 at the dollar’s last 3 turning points!

Look for updates later tonight on gold and USDJPY.  Both very interesting…

Comments

One response to “Charts I’m Watching: Dec 19, 2013”

  1. ewtnewbie Avatar
    ewtnewbie

    The long target from the 1795 support is 1811 ESH14. The 1837 target fits well with the 1758 support level traded earlier this week and nearly restested at FOMC fakeout. Thanks PW.