Real investors are troubled by what they see.  But, so far at least, TPTB have been able to keep the crap game afloat.

If we didn’t know any better, this would be a great time to get really, really nervous.  But, fortunately, our analog provides a great road map as to what to expect in the coming month or so — starting with today’s dip to 2090-2092 as forecast a week ago [CIW Apr 23, 2015]:

I’d be shorting here at 2118.85, with a target at 2090 and stops at 2125 or so.

The US dollar is threatening to break down.The euro is threatening to break out. The yen is acting positively schizophrenic — going nowhere during yesterday’s turmoil, and dropping like a rock today.

And, CL continues to make new post-crash highs.

Despite all the noise — and, that’s exactly what it is — we’re still quite comfortable with our SPX targets.

continued for members…

The 2090-2092 initial target looks good for today or tomorrow, and is simply waiting for CL and/or USDJPY to back off. As we’ve discussed many times, it’s tricky because any drop in CL produces a rise in DX and subsequent rise in USDJPY (a market that can’t go down.)

While, the secondary target would easily be pushed into May in order to get the SMA100 up to 2072 (the purple .618 Fib./white .236.)

This dip, of course, is nothing compared to the retracement we would see in an unrigged market.  Note how the rise from mid-October never was digested to any great extent — not even 50%.  And, it’s practically taken an act of Congress to get the dip to 2090 we forecast a week ago at 2119 [see: CIW Apr 23, 2015.]

UPDATE:  10:00 AM

SPX just tagged our initial target, reaching 2091.43.  We should get a decent bounce here — at least to the SMA20 at 2095.33 and potentially up to the SMA10 at 2105.57.  Note that the SMA50 itself is at 2090.56, so we could see some more weakness first.

Just as I typed those last words, SPX dipped a little further to 2090.62 — a better spot for a liftoff, I would think.

Look for some dollar buying to commence.

UPDATE:  12:45 PM

Nice surge in USDJPY and CL and EURUSD took SPX as high as 2102.67 before it faltered.  To those who hadn’t noticed it yet, it’s worth pointing out that SPX has completed a small H&S Pattern targeting 2065 — just below the SMA100 and our red target.  I’ll adjust the red target’s timing accordingly.

It’s pretty obvious that today’s slide could just keep going and we’d tag 2065 right away.  The retracement from 2102.67 has been fairly deep.  I wouldn’t rule it out, but I think it’s slightly more likely — especially with today being the end of the month — that TPTB will find a way to put it off at least a day.

Now, will the street support it?  Probably not.  They’re feeling a little tantrumy after yesterday’s slightly hawkish Fedspeak.  But, the FOMC/Citadel have all the tools they need at their disposal if they really want to prop it up for a day or more.

If it should break below 2090.56, there is channel support just below at 2087.66ish.  So, it would be fairly simple for more nimble traders than I to play the bounce with stops.  Or, if you’re the nervous type, sit this one out.

But, my gut tells me they’ll try to end the session on a high note — regardless of what’s planned for the following days.

UPDATE:  2:25 PM

One last thought, the SMA50 for the eminis is at 2081.57 — which it’s about to tag.  A bounce there would probably correspond with a bounce at the SPX channel support mentioned above at 2087.66ish.

UPDATE: 2:33 PM

Now, we’ll see if the channel line holds…If they can prop it up another 90 minutes or so, they can course correct overnight with DX, USDJPY, EURUSD and CL.