Will the 7th time be a charm?  The sideways channel guiding SPX nowhere since Feb 25 has successfully repelled six attempts at new highs. While the successive highs have been lower, the lows have been higher.  In other words, SPX is constructing a triangle that is entirely in keeping with our current analog.  If the trend continues, the SMA50/20 (2083-2087) should soon be tested.  But, might TPTB have something else in mind besides killing time (and traders)?

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The large purple Fib grid from mid-Oct never retraced to the .618, or even the .500.  The pale blue one from early Feb likewise came up short.  Could it be that the market movers are simply trying to establish the bona fides of the purple midline?

It’s too late to reach the purple .618 to flesh out the bottom of the purple channel.  That ship sailed on Apr 14 (day 245 of our analog.)

The next channel lines that align with interesting Fib levels are the red target (purple channel bottom and purple .500 Fib), the yellow target (.236 purple channel and .618 light blue Fib) and the purple target (purple channel bottom, white 1.272 and SMA200.)

USDJPY has nearly reached the 120.11 level again (at 120.085, close enough to be considered a backtest.) And, CL has an open (trap)door to 54.22, should it decide to avail itself……though the daily chart suggests the white .618 at 64.38 – a natural retreat after tagging the white .886.

UPDATE:  1:15 PM

Though USDJPY has backed off nicely, CL is going nuts today — up nearly 4%.  It’s offsetting the USDJPY drag, and then some. DX is sliding rapidly, but might have found TL support here at 97.34.  If not, the red target at 96.7ish looks good to me.

VIX is closing in on our target of the red channel bottom, but it looks premature.

SPX is testing the all-time high of 2119.59, and will likely slightly exceed it before falling off (probably on Monday.)

Though the 1.618 is only 18 points away at 2138, I don’t think SPX is ready to take a run at it yet — not without the support of USDJPY’s SMA200.  I’d be shorting here at 2118.85, with a target at 2090 and stops at 2125 or so.