Crummy initial claims, crummy trade data and no stimulus from the ECB — so naturally the futures are up.
The USDJPY has pushed above the TL from ’99, though it remains to be seen whether it can remain above beyond intraday. The .786 at 104.42 has come into the rising white channel, and thus is a possible intraday target.
UPDATE: 10:25 AM
Despite the lack of stimulus, EURUSD just made a lower low and appears to be closing in on the 1.36 level.
USDJPY reversed off the white .707 and yellow channel top and is back below the red TL. ES should follow suit.
UPDATE: 12:40 PM
Channel and Fib support here at ES 1877.50.
The midline of the rising purple channel is around 1900 at the end of the session — a tempting target for the bulls.
But, watch out around USDJPY 104 — the .618 of this morning’s drop and the midline of the rising white channel (already broken, this is a back-test.) Should USDJPY run out of steam here, it opens up the C wave to 103.57-63 to test the bottom of the white channel. ES wouldn’t react well.
