Charts I’m Watching: Apr 2, 2014

ES seems intent on reaching the higher Fib levels around 1903-1909, with yesterday’s Fed induced ramp largely responsible for the push above the yellow 1.272.

2014-04-02-ES daily 0625But, keep an eye on the analog we discussed yesterday.

USDJPY had a correspondingly strong move which topped the Mar 7 high, but failed to clear the TL from 1999 (red, dashed.)

2014-04-02-USDJPY daily 0648This TL has been very important in the past, providing support in 1999 and 2004, and resistance in May 2013.

2014-04-02-USDJPY v SPX daily 0648It was busted on Dec 18 when Janet Yellen confirmed tapering was, indeed, going forward  — and TPTB threw everything they had at the markets to demonstrate how this was a “good” thing.

We had a month or so of prices above the line, but they fell back below in late January and — despite back-testing it twice — have, as yet, failed to retake it.

2014-04-02-USDJPY v SPX daily 0700This is the exact same phenomenon we saw in TNX.

2014-04-02-TNX v SPX daily 0700

Yields popped up above the yellow dashed TL on Dec 18, fell back below on Jan 10, and have remained below it ever since — despite three attempts at retaking it.

2014-04-02-TNX v SPX daily CU 0700

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