The futures are pointed higher at the opening, though the dollar and the EURUSD and the eminis themselves — which is sitting at an .886 retracement of the yesterday’s move down — don’t support the idea of higher prices just yet.

With a 6 point pop on the opening, SPX will be right near its .886 (1569.19) as well, so playing along on the upside at the opening should be accompanied by tight stops — as this could easily be one of those lovely little pop and drops.

But, I’m still looking for 1576, as is just about everyone else, so this could be the overnight ramp-enabled push to reach it.

UPDATE:  9:35 AM

There’s the tag of 1569.19.  I’ll close here and revert to short, with stops right here at 1570.58 in case I’m wrong about the pop and drop potential.

And, just to get it off my chest, the chart patterns since the middle of March are have been some of the sloppiest, least well-formed, most forced (read “manipulated”) looking patterns I’ve seen in a long time.  This morning makes ten gaps up or down of 5+ points on the opening.

That is, 10 of the last 12 sessions have seen a 5+ point gap in the opening 15 minutes — with the average being 8.61 points.

Several of them have negated completed chart patterns that are normally 60-80% effective in predicting future moves, including two IH&S patterns and several Crab Patterns.

Clearly, the Street has an objective here, and it would be wise not to stand in the way.

UPDATE:  9:51 AM

Just got stopped out on the short, so I guess we’re going higher.  Watch out for the rising wedge (red, dashed) top at 1572ish and the factory orders due out in 10 minutes.  Could be that’s what the market makers are in a hurry to beat.  If the numbers are lousy, good luck hitting 1576 today.

UPDATE:  10:03 AM

The factory numbers were, in fact, lousy.  But, they won’t be reported that way.  The top line number was +3% versus expectations of +2.6% and Jan figures of -1.0%.

Gains without transportation were up only 0.3%.  Stripping away defense and aircraft, the figure actually fell 0.3%.

For a reality check (not that it’ll be reported in a million years), the top line number is down over 2% from January (not seasonally adjusted) and every single measure is lower than Feb of last year.

The top line number was good enough to get SPX to the top of the rising wedge, where it is reacting negatively.

Anyone who went long at the new high of 1570.58 might wish to take profits or place stops back at the .886 of 1569.19 just in case.  I believe I’ll do the latter, as this (albeit manipulated) rally seems destined to succeed in it’s one and only mission — a new high about which the talking heads can crow.

UPDATE:  10:37 AM

Just took another look at things and figured out where this is all going.  And, surprise!  It’s not 1576.

continued for members…

If we extend the bounds of the rising wedge to the right, we can see they converge around 1593.36 on April 19 (OPEX, by the way), which really threw me for a loop.

Believe it or not, that point lies directly on a trend line drawn between the two previous tops: 1552.87 on Mar 25, 2000 and 1576.09 on Oct 11, 2007.

We’ve looked at this trend line before, as the top of a channel spanning the past 15 years.

Rising wedges rarely stay intact long enough to tag their actual apex.  Most break down around the .618 or .786 Fib of the time period from inception to apex, though it can range from the .500 to the .886.

Since we just tagged the upper bound of the RW moments ago, and the .500 (in time) of the RW doesn’t come till Thursday morning (10:25ish EST), I think we will have to suffer though one last set of whipsaws before we reach 1576.

I’m going to close out my longs here at 1573 and revert to full short for a trip back to 1560.  Charts in a few.

UPDATE:  11:50 AM

Here’s the time and price Fib chart (both in red), with the convergence of the rising wedge bounds as apex.

Rising wedges are often redrawn again and again as slight over- and undershoots are factored in, and decisions are made about whether or not to include shadows and tails in which time frames.

But, it’s probably not a coincidence that the .618 price Fib corresponds with today’s high.  And, if we shift the time grid to begin at the RW’s low on Mar 19 (either can work), we can see that the .146 and .236 Fibs both line up with peaks in the pattern, i.e. upper bound tags.

Don’t get me wrong…there’s no reason SPX couldn’t run up and tag 1576 right now.  Rising wedges break upward all the time.  A push back up through 1573 and I’ll play along on the upside for 1576.

I think we’re seeing a battle between the MM’s who want to wring a few more bucks out of folks and the Establishment who sees tagging 1576.10 as the only thing that matters right now (though 1579 looks more like it if it’s today.)  In other words, stay groovy.

I can’t remember the last rising wedge that was so chock-full of tight, full moves from top to bottom.  Many have 2-3 tags on each of the bounds; this one has 8 on top and 6 on bottom.

Whether the tag comes in the next ten minutes or early Thursday, I think there’s a good chance it’ll then drop enough to suck in a lot of bears, then take a run at 1593 (let’s call it 1600.)

When a rising wedge breaks down, we like to look for a return to the base.  But, in a bull market, that rarely – if ever – happens.  The reversals will more likely look like Harmonic Pattern completions, where we get a drop to a Fib level one or two notches lower.

It’s not unusual, then, in a really bullish market, for prices to rise back up and tag the RW apex from below.  It’s happened many times in the past year.

The Crab Pattern set up by the Mar 15 to Mar 19 drop from 1563 to 1538 (purple, above) features a 1.618 at 1579.10.  This is the largest uncompleted valid Harmonic Pattern on my SPX chart right now (other than those above 1576.)

The rising wedge top passes 1576 the morning of Apr 4, but through 1579.10 around Mar 8.

The midline of the purple channel dating back to 1343 in Nov 2012 crosses 1576 in the next half-hour, and crosses 1579 on the morning of Apr 4.

So, here’s one scenario that kinda makes sense… just for grins [SPITBALL WARNING!!!]

I know the chart is rather messy, but focus on the yellow harmonic grid.  It features a bottom which not only intersects with the channel bottom, but is about .618 of the 1538 – 1579 rise (assuming we make it that high on Mar 4).

A 1.618 extension of the drop from 1579 to 1554 would be 1594ish — which would tag the big, red trend line.

First things first, so we need a drop to 1560-1562 either by the close or in the morning, then a quick ramp up to 1579-1580 within the next day or so.  No doubt adjustments will be necessary, but it should be interesting to watch.

UPDATE:  3:45 PM

For the AAPL watchers out there, things are not looking good for the stock.  I’ll put up more charts later, but the big problem is that it just failed its latest attempt to break out of the falling channel it’s been in since last September.

Also, it just fell below a trend line (in yellow, below) that connects its important prior lows (Apr 03 and Jan 09.)

More later.