pebblewriter

Category: Charts I’m Watching

  • RSI’s Warning

    SPX’s relative strength index (RSI) has been consolidating for months in a series of higher lows and lower highs. It’s the lower highs that should concern bulls, as they represent an unmistakable pattern of negative divergence that almost always ends in a correction.continued for members… (more…)

  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 8, 2024

    Blink, and you might have missed the selloff this morning when nonfarm payrolls came in much higher than expected but the January print was revised sharply lower.Fortunately, the algos were on it, immediately crashing VIX to a point where a 15-pt decline in ES turned into a 15-pt gain.

    This should put SPX at its 1.272 Fib extension, a potentially important level of overhead resistance ahead of next week’s CPI and PPI prints.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Mar 7, 2024

    ES came within 6 points of a key Fibonacci level on Monday, and has more recently been making minor pullbacks to test its rapidly rising 10-day moving average. The more important test will likely come next week when CPI and PPI are released.

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  • A Break in the Action

    As a reminder, we will not be posting March 4 through March 6.
    Trade safe, and we’ll see you all on the other side!

  • Is the Meltup Over?

    We’ve waited a very long time for SPX’s 50-DMA to reach a great spot for a small pullback. It’s finally here.

    Will the market cooperate?

    NOTE: I will be out of the office between March 4-6, returning on March 7.

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  • PCE in Line

    January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December.

    In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at a 0.2% rate versus 0.7% in December.

    Algos cheered the data, with futures swinging from a moderate loss to a moderate gain in seconds.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 28, 2024

    Futures are off moderately in the lead up to tomorrow’s important PCE print.

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  • Update on Bitcoin: Feb 27, 2024

    BTCUSD came within 126 of an important Fib level that could represent significant overhead resistance. Traders would do well to limit their exposure here.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 27, 2024

    Durable goods ex transportation fell by 0.3% in January, slightly more than expected. Futures rose slightly on the print, but are essentially flat ahead of the important consumer confidence reading.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Feb 26, 2024

    Futures are flat ahead of the open as traders place their bets on Thursday’s PCE print.

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