The S&P500 soared 14.5% in the first half, easily beating the averages (since 1953) of 4.72%. Can the markets build on these gains, or are we due for some consolidation?

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Headline PCE came in on target at 2.6% YoY and 0.0% MoM. Core was a tad higher at 0.1% MoM, also on target. Futures reacted positively, but have given up some of their gains after running into an important Fib level again.

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Futures are up slightly as we head into a week of somewhat consequential economic data.

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Stocks continue to inch higher with algos leading the way amidst acceptable economic prints.

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Stocks have inched higher over the past two weeks, with algos ruling the roost as expected.

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Inflation continues to moderate as expected, with headline CPI coming in unchanged MoM and up 3.3% YoY versus 3.4% in April.  Core CPI as up 0.2% MoM and 3.4% YoY versus 3.6% in April.

Energy and shelter continue to drive the data, with energy diving 2% MoM (up 3.7% YoY) and shelter up another 0.4% MoM (up 5.4% YoY.) Services in general were up 5% YoY.

Bottom line, there was nothing in the data to dissuade the Fed from a September rate cut which, judging from the FOMC presser, is exactly what they will likely do.

Stocks reacted positively and remain on track with our forecast.

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It’s another big week for the markets with CPI, PPI and an FOMC rate decision all hitting in the next couple of days. In other words, markets should continue to follow our forecast.

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It’s been six months since we suggested that oil/gas prices would be a critical element to the market’s behavior in the lead up to the November election [see: Dec 7 Update on Oil/Gas.] So far, so good.

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ES reached our 50-day moving average downside target from two weeks ago a little ahead of schedule.

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ES is gradually closing in on our downside target.

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