Futures are essentially flat the first trading day after the Treasury turned on the stimulus spigot again. They’ve now plugged a $3 trillion hole with a total of $5.3 trillion. Can it possibly not matter?

continued for members…

The bigger picture shows the market is still undecided. The H&S Pattern isn’t kaput, but it’s getting close. Note that ES’ 10/20 SMAs are still in a bearish alignment, though just barely.If it weren’t for the slope of the purple neckline, the pattern would be busted.  As it is, the pattern would bust at about 3980 for SPX and 4010ish for ES.Until the difference between the right shoulder and the neckline exceeds that between the head and the neckline, the pattern is still in play and could yield an even bigger pattern. VIX is slightly higher on the day, though just enough to prevent a bearish 10/20 alignment: 23.78 vs 24.01.The 10Y continues to test the market’s patience with the “no inflation” argument. The net effect has been slightly positive on DXY……while the EURUSD continues to angle toward an actual SMA200 test… …and USDJPY continues to think about a breakout/reversal. For their part, GC and SI are getting a slight bump, with SI remaining within striking distance of its approaching SMA200 and GC successfully backtesting its SMA10. With the 10Y poking to higher highs and stocks holding their own, the narrative is that investors will attribute the rate increase to reopening as opposed to inflation. As readers know, this will totally depend on what oil and gas do going forward.

UPDATE:  3:45 PM

Not much to say about today except it would have been a nice day to go golfing, sit on the beach, or watch the grass grow. No progress for bulls or bears – though the bearish crosses are just a little less convincing.