Futures just tagged our 50-day SMA target, but need to drop another 20 points if SPX is to reach its.
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Author: pebblewriter
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Charts I’m Watching: Aug 9, 2023
I will be traveling the next two days. All of our targets for equities, currencies, and commodities remain unchanged.
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Charts I’m Watching: Aug 8, 2023
Futures are down sharply as yesterday’s currency moves and VIX smackdown are being unwound by Moody’s banking downgrades. At least banks aren’t waking up to a 40% windfall profit tax such as Italy just imposed.
This timely bit of truthiness certainly has the potential to get ES to our SMA50 target in the lead up to Thursday’s CPI print. As for XLF, the timing couldn’t be worse.
Fear not, the Fed is already tapping the brakes.continued for members… (more…)
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CPI Coming Up
Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.
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Update on Currencies: Aug 4, 2023
Futures are up moderately on USD weakness. The EURUSD has backtested its recently broken red TL and its SMA10, sending the DXY back below a TL it was threatening to break above. This supports our thesis that the SMA200 is the most important target, but that the tag might wait until it reaches 1.087 or so.
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AAPL & AMZN on Deck
Yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP data and the Fitch downgrade did a number on stocks, with several indicators officially turning bearish for the first time in months. But, AAPL and AMZN, which make up over 10% of the S&P 500, haven’t reported yet. So, it might be a little early for bears to get excited.
We charted AMZN last week [see: Amazon – Can It Keep Delivering?] noting that it had reached important resistance and was overdue for a reversal.
It tested important support at its 50-day moving average yesterday which, if broken, could easily usher in another 10%+ to the downside.continued for members… (more…)
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Fitch Downgrades US
Fitch downgraded US debt from AAA to AA+, adding to stocks’ overnight decline.
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Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2023
With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately.
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BoJ: Just Kidding
It’s a big week for the market as many of the most important stocks are reporting amidst ongoing questions about the strength of the economy.
This morning, however, it’s all about the BoJ again. After effectively raising interest rates, they’ve jumped into the market to make sure interest rates don’t actually rise – boosting the USDJPY and, as a result, equity futures.
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